South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 18th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf conditions Mon with offshores
• Gusty S/SE-SE winds from Tues to the weekend, with a mix of strong S'ly thru' S/SE swells all week, wind affected in Northern NSW and pretty small in SE Qld
• Coast-hugging Low expected to form off CQ coast Wed/Thurs, leading to steep spike on size Thurs
• Surf becoming XL and stormy Fri, surfable at only the most protected Points with fresh SE winds
• Large surf continues over the weekend, with winds tending more S’ly as low moves away
• Heaps of E-ESE swell continuing into next week with improving winds

Recap

Pleasant weekend of small surf just passed. Size was around 1-2ft Sat with S swell magnets in NENSW seeing some 2-3ft surf. Sunday dropped further and with size less than 2ft and N’ly winds the Spring-like conditions didn’t draw many takers.

 Tiny surf across most of the region today, around a foot at most places with NW winds now tending W to SW as a cold front pushes through the region.

We’re looking at another dynamic week ahead, with swell from across the seaward facing compass rose becoming XL and stormy by Friday. Read on for details.

Very gentle surf over the weekend, very different to the upcoming weekend

This week (July 18-22)

Surf comes from a wide variety of sources this week as a typical strong winter cold front gets shunted aside by a very La Niña looking synoptic pattern, more reminiscent of Feb/Mar than July. This will see a very strong south-wards located high pressure system set up a strong ridge along Jost of the Eastern seaboard, acting as an anvil for a tropical low to push against later in the week. The low forms as an upper trough across inland QLD enters the Coral Sea on Thurs, with a surface trough in the Coral Sea deepening into a surface low forming gales adjacent to the CQ/Fraser Coast, before the system moves towards the North Island over the weekend.

In the short run we’ll be looking at small surf through Tues as the strong ridge builds with a S’ly flow becoming established. SW winds should linger into the mid-morning before freshening and tending S’ly. Small background E swell will supply a few inconsistent 1-2footers while a new S swell is expected to push up the NSW North Coast, reaching 3ft at S facing beaches by mid a’noon on the Mid North Coast and later a’noon on the Far North Coast. Nothing special under brisk S’lies.

Winds deteriorate further Wed, with a mod/fresh SSE to SE flow expected. More swell energy from the southern quadrant will be on offer Wed but winds will make a mess of most beaches picking up the swell. Expect size in the 3-5ft range in NENSW, smaller at more sheltered spots and 2-3ft in SEQLD. Winds will be very unfavourable but if you can find a sheltered spot there should be enough swell energy on tap to refract into it at a reduced size. A late kick is expected on the Mid North Coast as a pulse of more SSE angled swell makes landfall from a secondary low stalled near the South Island later Mon/Tues which aims up at the NSW Coast. To be honest local winds will likely be so unfavourable this swell will be hard to pick out of the messy sea state.

The latter part of the week sees the dominant high strengthen and be just east of Tasmania on Thurs morning, with a deepening trough of low pressure off the CQ/Fraser Coast. Between those two systems we’ll be expecting a ridge of high pressure and onshore SE/ESE winds across most of the East Coast, strongest in our sub-tropical region. 

The map will look spectacular but the surf will be marred by the onshore flow, likely fresh ESE and hard to find shelter from.  There’ll be some S’ly swell trains in the water but these will be very much overshadowed by a steep increase in E’ly swell from the southwards moving low. 

Only the most sheltered Points will be on the menu Thurs as size ramps up from 3-4ft into the 6ft range, possibly bigger in SEQLD. Expect a later increase and smaller size the further south you head into NSW. 

By the end of the working week and surf will be macking, large and stormy and surfable at only a handful of the most sheltered Points, which will be no secret. Friday is likely to see a low centre due East of Fraser Island with gales aimed straight at SEQLD. Typically a low of this size and fetch strength produces surf in the 8-10ft range, bigger at open beaches with large Point surf in excess of 6ft, grading smaller into more sheltered inner Points. Winds will back around from ESE more SE, straight offshore at the classic QLD Points. The Outer points may see surf holding in excess of 8ft, depending on the state of the sandbanks, and there will be a ton of water moving around. Experts only apart from the most sheltered inner Bays.

This weekend (July 23-24)

Friday should see the initial peak of the swell (in SEQLD) but plenty of size is expected over the weekend, likely overpowering all but the most sheltered Points. The general movement of the low is expected to be SE, allowing winds to gradually tend more SSE through S’ly over the course of the weekend.

Expect size in the 8-10ft range Sat morning, just rolling off a tad in size through the a’noon as the low moves away. The slight shift in swell direction (towards the S) will affect swell penetration into more N facing Points through the day, seeing a steeper drop in size at those spots.

Expect an increase in size across NENSW into the 10ft range through the day on Sat as the E’ly windfield aims up more directly south of the border. Surfable at only the most sheltered locations, most of which will be reforms.

A stronger Sly component swell from S’ly gales on the western flank of the low sees surf rebuild Sun from the SSE-S, up into the 8-10ft range again, with much smaller surf at more N facing Points. With winds tending more S’ly and possibly even SSW-SW through Sun a’noon it does offer up the possibility of some more open Pointbreaks to be ridden at peak size. We’ll finesse that wind outlook during the week. Keep your eyes on local wind obs through Sunday.

Next week (July 25 onwards)

The tropical low looks to slowly drift towards the North Island later this weekend and into early next week, with a slow easing signal of E swell the likely result this far out.

Winds should improve, slowly on Mon, with a lighter S to SSE flow on offer, and size in the 6ft range, bigger 6-8ft in NENSW.

A weak front Tues sees a continuation of the light S’ly flow, with potentially the first clean day in a week. Looks good surf-wise too, with continuing ESE swell in the 6ft range.

This set-up of lighter winds and E swell in the well overhead range lasts into Wed, so pencil in some time next week once the onshore pattern relaxes and we get back to more traditional winter wind flows.

Longer term and looks like the E swell will slowly linger and ease through until later next week. A cold front suggests a pulse of S swell through the same period.

We just have to get through this onshore/stormy period first, hopefully without too much damage to sandbanks.

Check back Wed for a fresh update.