Easing weekend before a windy week of waves, then a potential tropical source

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 15th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Easing S'ly swell all weekend, biggest south of the border
  • Light winds Sat, freshening NW breezes Sun though very small by this time
  • Tiny surf conditions Mon with offshores
  • Gusty S/SE winds from Tues to the weekend, with a mix of strong S'ly thru' S/SE swells all week, wind affected in Noerthern NSW and pretty small in SE Qld
  • Chance for some unseasonable (?) tropical swell into the longer term

Recap

Building S’ly swells reached a wind affected 4-5ft+ across Northern NSW’s south facing beaches on Thursday, and anywhere between 1ft and 3ft across SE Qld depending on exposure to the south. Today’s seen a similar size but with better quality swell lines, and more manageable winds. 

Peaky afternoon in Caloundra

Late Friday lines at The Pass

This weekend (July 16-17)

No change to the weekend trend outlook, with the current south swell easing rapidly both days, and light variable winds on Saturday in most areas giving way to light to moderate NW breezes in SE Qld on Sunday, which will become stronger as you head south from the border, along with a slight tweak in the direction to the N/NW across the Mid North Coast.

South facing beaches in Northern NSW will pick up the most size, with 3-4ft+ sets at the swell magnets early Saturday easing to 2-3ft by the afternoon, and holding a slow 2ft through Sunday. Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.

North of the border, most beaches will be very small on Saturday (~1ft) but south swell magnets may see early 2ft+ sets before size eases further through the afternoon and into Sunday, when surf prospects will become marginal at all but the most reliable of south swell magnets. 

Next week (July 18 onwards)

Very small surf conditions will persist into Monday morning across the Northern NSW Coast (tiny to flat in SE Qld), with moderate NW tending W/NW winds ahead of a late S’ly change across the lower Mid North Coast.

This will be a precursor to an extended period of fresh S’ly tending S/SE winds from Tuesday through Saturday or Sunday, as a strong frontal system passes through the lower Tasman Sea and a ridge firms along the East Coast. 

We’ll see a building mix of swells during this period: some short range local swell from the ridge but more prominent will be a mix of S’ly groundswell from the parent low/front down south (Tues/Wed) and then a smaller but better S/SE tending SE groundswell sourced from new Tasman Low that will have developed in the wake of the front, off the west coast of New Zealand’s South Island. 

Model guidance is even suggesting a slight retrograde back towards the Australian mainland into Wednesday (see below); and I like this system the best as the swell angle will allow for better size prospects away from south swell magnets, which will be quite wind affected. 

As for size, we can expect a windy 4-6ft at south swell magnets (south from Byron) from late Tues into Wed, with 4-5ft+ S/SE tending SE swell through Thursday and Friday, though I wouldn’t rule out the chance for an upgrade in this pattern and thus bigger surf outlook from the Tasman Low. Of course, it'll be much smaller at beaches with less southerly exposure.

Across SE Qld, the swell direction won’t initially favour much size north of the border (i.e. Tues) but from Wednesday onwards we should start to see some small peelers across the semi-exposed points around the 2ft+ mark. Exposed northern ends will be bigger but much more wind affected. 

Longer term has some some ordinarily unseasonable tropical activity in the Coral Sea, which is seemingly becoming the norm. It’s a long way out and should be viewed with caution, but certainly suggests another pattern of dynamic activity in the Tasman Sea may not be terribly far away.

Have a great weekend!

Comments

Fresh55's picture
Fresh55's picture
Fresh55 Saturday, 16 Jul 2022 at 8:16am

Well that changed quick. Looks like a serious system to bring rain, wind and big swell north of the boarder from Wednesday. Could be a wild one.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 16 Jul 2022 at 8:39am

Christmas in July!

(well, more like Feb/Mar in July, but that doesn't have the same turn of phrase)

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Saturday, 16 Jul 2022 at 9:45am

The 5 metre East swell model would be a rather interesting occurrence for already depleted beaches.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 9:36am

Banks were just starting to come back to life and now this system is gonna Fck they over big time. Oh well with spring hitting early yesterday and today it probably doesn’t matter what the bank situation will be like anyway!!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 10:00am

Now 6 metre lol. It's not often the models head upwards the closer we get.

Fresh55's picture
Fresh55's picture
Fresh55 Saturday, 16 Jul 2022 at 4:02pm

Out of curiosity. If this weather pattern plays out as it says today. Have we seen anything this big outside of cyclonic season before ?

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 8:27am

July 2019?

eat-your-vegies's picture
eat-your-vegies's picture
eat-your-vegies Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:39am

July 2001 swell was pretty darn amazing.

freesurfer1977's picture
freesurfer1977's picture
freesurfer1977 Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 7:32am

Previous la Nina's,has there ever been a low form anywhere near the one forming this week!!?? In July!!?? Or August or even September?? Refresh my memory some please...

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 10:45am

Yes.
On several occasions.

Aug 2007.

This was about the best Superbank swell I've ever seen.

6-8ft from end to end.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 11:08am

Ye gads!

Black and white, four hPa increments, those old MSLP charts are boring, are they not?

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:12pm

They're a work of art Stu!!

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:27pm

2hPa increments, 2B pencil on paper.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:32pm

Lurvely.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:35pm

Work of art IB.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:39pm

That was a quick and dirty one done a mad rush yesterday morning. I'll see if I can find a good one.

We do them every three hours, and they are crucial for situational awareness, checking on model performance, etc.

And they are such a pleasure to do.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:46pm

Latest one. Bit of gradient over the South Island today (118kt gust at one of the mountain AWSs)

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:49pm

Looks tight over Cook Strait too.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:52pm

Very. 67 knots in Wellington.

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:49pm

Who do you work for IB

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:51pm

MetService (NZ equivalent of BOM)

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:56pm

Nice work.

I’m jealous!

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 1:39pm

Is that Metvuw?

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 1:44pm

MetVuw is Victoria Uni's weather stuff.

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 1:47pm

Thanks I didn’t know. I have been looking at their maps for years. Plenty of lines compared to BOM. I do like how they overlay the rain forecast also.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:53pm

Agh didn't notice it was recent, nice!

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:57pm

Pretty good modelling, actually. Even has an indication of the barrier jet on the South Island west coast.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 1:01pm

I'm amazed you didn't cross any isobars on the drawing out north-west and south-east of the country.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 1:27pm

It happens!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 1:05pm

Just Googled barrier jet, was never aware of this. Interesting.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:57pm

Steve and Craig, we now require you to include hand drawn charts in your forecaster notes please.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 12:59pm
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 1:28pm

Your seasonal stuff out-sexies my little hand drawn analyses hands down.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 1:39pm

Ha, cheers.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 7:48am

Bank buster shit cluster. Everyone go to Noosa

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 8:39am

yeah not happy Jan, has been some epic sand formations around turning normally average waves into good ones... If the forecast stays true, not sure if even Kirra will handle it on the GC......

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 10:02am

It's going to be quite the shit show if it even comes close to what's predicted. Wonder what we'll get off the back of it and how much sand will be about. Enjoy today's sunshine!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 18 Jul 2022 at 11:04pm

Today was insanely spring like. Flat ocean and warm as. Almost took my shirt off walking the dog on the beach at lunch it was that balmy.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 19 Jul 2022 at 8:19am

Yep same, that slight oil look to the ocean instead of winter clean. Not too worried yet, still Ekka winds to come, once the wind shows with an N after that I start scowling out to sea.