South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 8th June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Decent S'ly swell late Tues (MNC) and Wed (Nthn NSW), still tiny in SE Qld
• Plenty of S swell Thurs in NENSW, still small in SEQLD
• Solid S'ly swell Fri (only small in SE Qld)
• Very large S'ly swell (Nthn NSW) next weekend, with plenty of fun waves in SE Qld
• Large S swell peaking Mon across the region with light winds perfect for regional Points
• Offshore winds through the entire period, with a few curve balls of NW/N wind thrown in.
• Plenty more strong S swell through to mid next week at least, with offshore winds

Recap

Not much of interest yesterday, mostly tiny, apart from some small S’ly swell in the 2ft range at the usual suspects across the MNC to Ballina region. Today has seen a stronger S’ly signal with pulsey, tidally affected surf in the 2-3ft range across most S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 1ft in SEQLD apart from a few select S swell magnets. Offshore W’ly winds are providing classic winter conditions. We are just at the beginning of this extended S swell event with plenty more to come.

S swell just trickling over the border supplying dreamy babyfood under bluebird skies

This week (June 8-10)

The broad scale Southern Gyre is now setting up in the deep Southern Tasman, as Craig has detailed in his recent article. Strong high pressure support from a 1033hPa elongated high in the Bight is providing tight pressure gradients for the multiple fronts spinning off the gyre. That will lead to numerous over-lapping S’ly pulses over the coming week with a general step-ladder effect expected at least through to Mon. A general offshore flow will accompany these pulses as the fronts drive W’ly biased winds across the temperate to sub-tropical East Coast.

In the short run and expect another foot at least on todays size as period bumps up a notch through Thurs- supplying S swell in the 3-4ft range across NENSW S exposed breaks, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. Based on todays stronger than expected surf through Sydney there's good odds we'll see some bigger 3-5ft surf at select S swell magnets across NENSW.

Into the end of the working week and size lifts another notch as the next pulse fills in, again, with period bumped up a notch. That should see some solid 4-5ft surf build in across most S exposures with bigger 4-6ft at more notable S facing stretches, through the a’noon.  Expect smaller 3-4ft surf at S exposures through the morning. SEQLD will start seeing more surfable size in the 2-3ft range from mid a’noon but as with all directional S swells size will be much smaller than south of the border.

This weekend (June 11-12)

No great changes to the weekend f/cast. Tons of South swell with offshore winds both days is the take home.

Drilling down and the step-ladder effect kicks in again Sat with the pulse of swell expected through the later a’noon into the 6ft range across S exposed breaks in NENSW, showing on the MNC through the morning, Ballina just after lunch and SEQLD mid a’noon. That should see some better sized 3-4ft surf in SEQLD, even filtering into the Outer Points. 

That pulse eases down a notch into Sun with plenty of 4-6ft surf through the day at S exposed breaks. Through the a’noon, likely mid arvo on the MNC and late a’noon from Ballina north we’ll see an even more powerful S swell pulse fill in.  Severe gale to storm force winds slingshotting up from deep in the lower Southern Ocean into the Tasman Sea on an already highly charged sea state will produce a very powerful S swell. Expect 6-8ft surf by late a’noon in NENSW, smaller 3-5ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches. Even bigger sets are on the cards for deep-water adjacent reefs with S exposure as long swell periods enhance bathymetric focussing effects. This won’t be tiddlywinks so make sure you have the equipment/experience to paddle out with.

Next week (June 13 onwards)

Sundays pulse builds further into Mon and we’re looking at very large surf to start the week. Sets in the 8ft+ range are on the menu at S exposed breaks in NENSW, with S facing bars being massive in the 8-10ft range. Winds should maintain out of the W/SW to SW through the day, providing more classic, groomed Winter conditions across the region.

Dreamy light offshores return for Tues and plenty of strong S swell is still on the cards. Likely 6-8ft through the morning at S exposed breaks, smaller elsewhere, with 3-4ft surf in SEQLD apart from a few swell magnets with bigger 4-6ft surf. Some bigger sets at the more reliable S facing reefs are possible and with light W’ly winds there’ll be a ton of options for those looking to maximise the swell size. For others, you’ll be trying to find a surfable corner.

Through the middle into the end of next week and the surf keeps coming, albeit at a size that ,once again, invites the average rec surfer back into the fray.

Winds remain W’ly or even W/NW as fronts continue to sweep across NSW and size just slowly, slowly trends downwards through Wed and Thurs, although still remaining at elevated levels in the 4-6ft range at S exposed breaks.

Friday should see a last pulse of long period SSE/SE swell from gales/severe gales well below the South Island as the gyre aims one last blast of wind back towards the East Coast. That should see sets back into the 4-6ft range with offshore winds. For those who still have some paddle left in the arms.

Into next weekend and we should see surf steadily trending downwards with light offshore winds likely.

We’ll update that on Friday. Seeya then!