James KC

Nice little E swell to fill the gaps

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Wednesday 9th June)

Best Days: E swell from Thursday until Monday

Outlook (tl;dr)

  • N/NE windswell for Wednesday
  • 2-3ft E swell to combine with fading NE swell for Thursday/Friday
  • 2-3ft E swell to continue into weekend and start of next week 

Recap

Small to tiny waves yesterday with N winds making it a little bumpy and not very exciting.  

Today is looking better with some nice waves out of the NE today up in the 2-3ft range. Winds are more out of NW today making it a little bumpy for north facing beaches but generally fairly clean conditions on offer.

The end of this week 

A cut off low over the south east of the nation has brought an end to the run of swell we’ve had for most of the year. Things started off better today though with a nice little NE swell on offer and the good news is it’s only looking better from here. 

A new E swell is set to arrive tomorrow (Thursday) mixing in with the NE swell, there should be some fun waves on offer. This E/SE swell was generated earlier in the week with E/SE winds to the west of NZ. It will provide some nice waves in the 2-3ft range that will be sustained into Friday.

Winds will be out of the W/NW early tomorrow but tend more N/NW later in the day making it a little bumpy at north facing beaches. Friday will be similar, with winds more offshore early before tending more NW as the day goes on.

Worth noting is the colder weather that will come as the cut off low and associated cold pool low move over the coast. If you haven’t already it could be worth getting your steamer out more for the air temperature than the water temperature. 

The weekend and further ahead

As the cut off low moves offshore into the end of the week and at the start of the new week winds will be lighter and tend more offshore. 

An infeed of N/NE winds, still not all that well aimed, and a distant fetch of E winds to the north of NZ look like they’ll bring a decent run of E swell sustained in that 2-3ft range throughout the weekend and into the start of next week. There could even be some more 3ft sets early next week although it looks to be a touch more inconsistent with the fetch a bit further away to the north of NZ.  

Monday will see a new but weak S swell fill in with a small fetch of S winds on the western flank of the low moving away from the coast. 

As mentioned it’s all looking up from here with decent waves from tomorrow onwards. More for further ahead on Friday.

Comments

richard187's picture
richard187's picture
richard187 Wednesday, 9 Jun 2021 at 9:54pm

Great surprise with the waves this Arvo, stoked cheers for the afternoon report

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 6:53am

Yesterdays fun little swell really died in the arse today.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 7:18am

Yep, no sign of anything this morning. Close to flat even at the absolute magnets. Back to work.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 7:33am

Keep an eye out from late morning.

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 8:49am

Yeh so we can watch the wind ruin the new swell as it comes in....

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 10:03am

Ice on the windscreen this morning, can't recall that happening before.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 10:52am

Where are ya Sprout?

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 10:58am

North end Sunny Coast.
Water/wipers didn't do anything until I drove off a bit and got some wind on it, quite the novelty haha.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 10:56am

3.2 degrees at the Airport. Dunno if it's a record, but... faaaark! 

Bloody cold here on the Tweed too.

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 10:25am

I found this forecast inaccurate and unreliable so far. It could have read, Thursday will start off small but a new little swell is due to arrive later during the day but unfortunately this will coincide with a cross shore windy breeze from the NNW which will pretty much result in a lay day. Better conditions for Friday etc....etc..

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 10:56am

Fair point. We'll take it on board.

geoffrobertford's picture
geoffrobertford's picture
geoffrobertford Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 11:21am

Inaccurate and unreliable is far too strong mate. I’m not sure if you are aware, but predicting the exact timing of swell arrivals is inherently complex.

Great job Ben and co. Always great forecasts and interesting to read. Love the chat in the comments too.

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 11:35am

Don't make excuses now. It's good to take criticism where it's due. I'm no expert but looking at sites like windguru you can see a dip in swell this morning but showing it expecting to grow during the day. Winds are obvious too.
The forecast was way over optimistic hence my "strong" comment. Wasn't even close! We can praise swellnet where it's due and critique them when appropriate.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 11:36am

Look forward to some of that forthcoming praise.

Deffenti's picture
Deffenti's picture
Deffenti Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 5:39pm

Hi Ben,

What can we expect for the weekend: "2-3" or "1+" shown on the charts? (Not getting into the criticism issue - just trying to get some clarity as to whether I should follow the notes or the chart.)

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 5:58pm

I'm not doing the forecasts at the moment, so aren't up to speed with the Synoptics, but as a general rule always follow the notes (use the graph as a general trend indicator but read the notes for the things the models aren't picking up).

Deffenti's picture
Deffenti's picture
Deffenti Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 6:52pm

Awesome, mate. Thank you!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 2:17pm

Sounds like you got skunked and blame a SN report for not coming to fruition.

Don’t be angry, be amazed that Nature can and will do whatever the fuck it wants.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 11:35am

From a mate down the other end, Hossegor?

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 7:18pm

Looks like sunrise

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 8:20am

Bit further at the place of flying foxes.

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 9:02am

Not sure what that means Sprout but if it’s sunrise it’s not Hossegor

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 9:11am

Haha sorry bit cryptic, down clown town way which looked like Hossegor with the morning mist.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 10 Jun 2021 at 3:14pm

great shots!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 6:33am

Whoa.
(though, Sprout's mate's shots are off the hook).

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 8:04am

Was so good in the ocean with the whole thing aglow, beautiful fun little morning.

greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 6:53am

Been nothing but freezing cold & dribble here on the M.N.Coast last couple of days, yes swell did get to 2ft (maybe 3ft on the odd set) but banks are shot after that huge southerly swell last week.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 7:19am

Looks like a few new little lines but hard to tell with the northerly cross chop. 1/10

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 7:25am

Northerly? Seaway is WNW, Cooly is W'ly.. which stretch are you at?

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 9:09am

I'm talking about the residual NE wind swell. Look at the surfers cam and you'll see little bumps heading south down the beach at 45 degrees contaminating the little easterly lines coming in. Its trying to clean up but its a mess even though surface conditions are okay.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 9:16am

As yes.. I can see what you're referring to.

richard187's picture
richard187's picture
richard187 Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 4:44pm

Surf somewhere thats clean then. I had excellent waves with 4 people out at lunchtime. The east swell is there and has a good bit of power. You just need to pick the right spot using your common sense

mickseq's picture
mickseq's picture
mickseq Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 6:11pm

ill be there in the morning, generationsnowflake still in bed till 10am

Redmond Clement's picture
Redmond Clement's picture
Redmond Clement Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 6:27pm

I am well pleased with the swellnet package.

Redmond Clement's picture
Redmond Clement's picture
Redmond Clement Friday, 11 Jun 2021 at 7:31pm

Beautiful clear ocean glassy, got nice waves today.