South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Wednesday 2nd June)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday

Outlook (tl;dr)

• Swell easing to a low point on Friday
• Building south swell for Saturday with fresh S winds
• Easing Sunday but with improving conditions, though nothing great
• Quiet start to next week
• Interesting setup for mid next week with potential for a run of E/NE swell

Recap

The past few days have seen solid conditions south of Byron and plenty of more manageable waves north of Byron. The points have been the pick while most exposed spots have been too big and wild south of the border.

SE QLD was in that 4ft range yesterday but has now dropped to 2-3ft while south of the border waves were up over the 6ft+ mark yesterday while today it is a more manageable 4-5ft. Expect it to ease a little as the day goes on. 

This week 

It’s looking like a relatively quiet end to the week with not much swell producing action in any of our swell windows thanks to a large high pressure system positioning itself right over the Tasman Sea. Conditions will be nice, with just the odd light seabreeze, but there won’t be much in the way of new swell.

Tomorrow (Thursday) we will see the swell ease from 3ft to occasionally 4ft across the magnets and by Friday morning we will have reached the low point in the swell for the entire week with just small surf, 2ft south of the border even smaller for SE QLD. 

Late on Friday we will see a new S swell start to develop thanks to a cold front whipping up some strong S winds in the Tasman. There’ll be wind but not much in the way of size until Saturday. 

The stronger SW winds will arrive with a change late on Friday for the MNC, before filling in along the coast overnight into the start of the weekend.

This weekend 

The S change that started moving it’s way up the coast on Friday with a front will deliver a peak in S swell in the 4-5ft+ range for south of the border into Saturday afternoon, smaller elsewhere. It’ll be accompanied by strong S winds so don’t expect too much in terms of quality waves. Southern corners and points will be the pick getting a bit less size than the 4-5ft+ waves at S facing beaches but with cleaner conditions. 

For SE QLD, don’t expect much from this swell due to the acute angle of the swell. Basically it is too south, meaning the most we will see is a slow 1-2ft at the points while exposed northern ends may see 3ft sets although it’ll be wind affected. 

Expect the surf to ease fairly quickly on Sunday. Winds will be light and variable under a weak ridge of high pressure meaning conditions will be better. You’ll need to get in earlier rather than later. 

The good news for SE QLD is the swell direction becomes a bit more S/SE creating some fun, yet small, beachies at exposed spots. 

Next week 

Ben’s optimism for a small E/NE fetch developing north of NZ’s North Island’s swell shadow is looking to turn out to be a bit too optimistic. We will see 1-2ft of E/NE swell from it but the bulk of the fetch is now looking to form behind NZ or be aimed too north and not have enough east in it.

What’s looking to bring the bulk of the small waves on offer is the fading S/SE swell to linger into the start of the week before a E/NE swell is generated thanks to the infeed of winds into a mid latitude low over land.

It’s still a while off but it is worth keeping an eye on. It could bring some decent E/NE swell and NW winds late next week. More on that on Friday.