Small waves for this week, bigger from the weekend onwards

James KC

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Wednesday 28th April)

Best Days: Next week

Outlook:

  • Smaller for Thursday/Friday
  • E swell over weekend 
  • Pulse of mid period E swell for Tuesday
  • Potential for larger swell from east coast low later in the forecast period

Recap

Well there’s been waves for N NSW and the MNC the past few days with the peak being yesterday afternoon for the MNC and this morning for N NSW. For SE QLD there’s been 2ft of windswell at the magnets but it hasn’t been great.

Most spots have getting clean conditions in the mornings ahead of an onshore seabreeze in the afternoon. 

Today is 1-2ft for SE QLD and 3ft south of the border, generally cleaner earlier becoming bumpier into the afternoon.

Into the end of the week

We are now entering the doldrums as a blocking high in the southern Tasman prevents any decent S swells but opens up the opportunity for some E swells later in the forecast. 

For the next few days the surf will be small with just some S/SE windswell on offer in the 2ft+ range thanks to a ridge of high pressure directing winds along our coast. With light and variable SW winds along the coast in the morning and fresh SE winds in the afternoons you could jag some OK waves for the keen in the mornings. 

The weekend

As the high in the southern Tasman shifts east the winds across the top of NZ will begin to direct an E swell towards our coast. 

This E swell will begin to fill in on Saturday building to a 3-4ft peak late and into Sunday.

With E/SE winds persisting for most of the weekend it’ll be bumpy at most spots, except for southern Goldy which should see morning S/SW winds. As per usual it’ll be the points that handle the winds best and with an E swell it'll be seeing plenty of the swell on offer too.

South of the border, wave heights will be similar, albeit a bit smaller for the MNC, around the 2-3ft mark and peaking on Monday instead of Sunday. Winds are looking much the same for N NSW, out of the E/SE, but the MNC will see light and variable winds early ahead of an E/NE seabreeze on Saturday staying light and variable for much of Sunday with an area of instability.

With the persistent E/SE winds expect some weak E/SE windswell added to the mix as well.

Next week

Next week is generally looking better than this week. The E swell look to be less consistent but in that 3-4ft mark on Monday before a pulse of E swell arrives for Tuesday morning. 

Models get a little confused from here on as a low forms off the East Coast. What is likely is there’ll be a decent sized swell, although it’s not clear which quadrant it will be out of just yet. The low will affect surface conditions though so let's see how it evolves over the coming days. 

Comments

vbaaccess's picture
vbaaccess's picture
vbaaccess Wednesday, 28 Apr 2021 at 10:50pm

James, your report for the next couple of day and into this weekend is spot on when I looked at the synoptic charts, wind strength and wind direction using windy.com and bom.gov websites. With the large blocking high with a long easterly fetch will produce a moderate tradeswell for this weekend and into next week.