thermalben

Coupla swell sources but fresh winds until Friday

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 6th April)

Best Days: Tues/Wed/Thurs: small waves at outer points under S/SE airstream. Fri: plenty of E'ly swell and easing S'ly swell, with lighter winds. Sat/Sun: light winds, easing E'ly swell and a pulse of S'ly swell - possibly strong - for Northern NSW (Sun). 

Recap: E’ly swells provided good waves to exposed beaches over the weekend. Size came in around 3ft at most open stretches though there were a few scattered reports of 4ft sets, mainly on Saturday. Today eased back to 2-3ft. Conditions were northerly-wind affected on Saturday, a few locations saw pockets of lighter NW winds but Sunday offered the best conditions with light offshore winds ahead of developing southerly winds. Today has seen early light SW winds in most areas swing fresh S’ly through SE. 

Snapper Rocks showing form this afternoon

This week (Apr 7 - 10)

A strengthening ridge across the coast will maintain moderate to fresh S/SE winds from Tuesday thru’ Thursday. A few regions might be lucky and pick up brief windows of lighter S/SW winds, but they’ll be the exception rather than the rule. 

As for surf, we’ve got a couple of source on the cards but nothing overly special.

A supporting ridge below TC Harold - current devastating the Vanuatu region - will supply small, intermittent E’ly swells all week. Inconsistent sets in the 2-3ft range are likely all week. 

The developing coastal ridge will stretch from the Mid North Coast into the Coral Sea, and although poorly aligned for our region (way too meridional - north/south - in orientation), we will see a small mid range swell, mainly at south facing beaches south of Byron with 2-3ft sets, smaller elsewhere. 

The supporting high pressure system to the south-west will broaden through the Tasman Sea later this week and we’re looking at a swing in the swell direction to the E/SE by late Thursday and Friday, mainly favouring SE Qld with 3ft+ sets by Friday, though it’ll be smaller running down the points. Local winds should have relaxed a little by this stage too, though it’ll still be out of the SE quadrant north of the border. 

The main swell even on the charts for this week is a southerly groundswell, thanks to a strong long wave trough tracking across Tasman Sea longitudes. 

Initially, the early energy will be generated by weaker and/or less favourably aligned winds exiting eastern Bass Strait, and also along the Southern NSW coast. However the parent low - positioned well to the south of Tasmania this morning - is showing a decent fetch of 40-45kts winds, and will today track north-east through our south swell window, generating a larger pulse that’ll provide the biggest waves of the week.

Tuesday will generally see small southerly swells across Northern NSW, and the strong pulse from the parent low will push across the Northern NSW on Wednesday, reaching 3-5ft at south facing beaches south of Byron. Unfortunately, they’ll be quite wind affected and everywhere else will be a lot smaller. I’m not expecting much of this energy to penetrate north of the border. Wave heights will then ease steadily from Thursday.

Looking elsewhere, and TC Harold won’t directly generate any swell for us. It’s currently inside the New Caledonian swell shadow, and once it clears this region it’ll accelerate to the east towards the South Pacific, too fast to generate swell for the Australian East Coast. 

Over the last week or so I’ve been mentioning a deep trough/tropical low well to the east, inside the NZ swell shadow that had some peripheral potential. Over the last few days the models have ever so slightly shunted this system to the south, to the point where I can be a little more confident in ruling out swell prospects for Southern NSW, but we should still see a small spread across Northern NSW - probably below that of the existing swells - whilst SE Qld should pick up inconsistent 3ft sets on Thursday and Friday.

This weekend (Apr 11 - 12)

Light winds are expected over the weekend as a high pressure ridge moves in from the west. This should create clean conditions across all coasts, both days. 

As for surf, this week’s easterly and southerly swell sources will slowly abate. Saturday morning should still maintain 3ft sets across SE Qld, before size falls slowly into Sunday. Expect a little less size from this source as you head south of the border. 

However, there is some southerly swell potential on the way for Northern NSW. At this stage there’s still a bit of divergence between the models so the specifics aren’t yet clear, but another amplifying node of the Long Wave Trough is expected below Tasmania later this week, and we’re looking at a long period S’ly swell arriving around Sunday that cold throw up some solid sets at south facing beaches south of Byron. 

This output (via GFS, see below) shows incredibly strong winds aimed away from our swell window, but the resulting spread of energy would still kick up a large swell event somewhere in the 4-6ft range at reliable south swell magnets - however the flukey swell source would result in a wide range in size across the region. And I’m not expecting much of this swell to reach SE Qld, away from a handful of south swells magnets that might pick up 3ft sets. 

Current indications are for good winds too, offshore though perhaps fresh at times.

This is all still quite some time away - and let me reiterate that the models are not completely on board with this scenario right now - so let’s take a closer look on Wednesday, as they’ll start to consolidate towards a common position by then.

Next week (Apr 13 onwards)

Powerful secondary fronts trailing behind the system responsible for the weekend’s south swell should maintain strong southerly swells across Northern NSW through the first half of next week, though the poor fetch alignment will keep a lid on anything overly sizeable.

That’s the main focus of the long term charts. We’ll firm up things in more details on Wednesday. 

See you then!

Comments

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 6:28pm

Northern NSW looks the goods!

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 6:37pm

Nar looks better on the sunny coast:
Wind’s better suited, good banks at the moment, friendly locals, less shark attacks

;)

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 7:42pm

Hahaha. Nah SC skunked again, carpark the whole way up from Brizo, more lanes to NNSW much easier drive, empty banks, God's country down there. ;-P

bruzzz's picture
bruzzz's picture
bruzzz commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 6:42pm

No one will be able to surf after Easter anyways.

Smol

alexsmith1's picture
alexsmith1's picture
alexsmith1 commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 7:16pm

Was thinking the same thing... 100 guys at greenmount today, 1000 by Saturday, closed Tuesday.

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 7:00pm

Be sick if the Coolum surf cam got fixed sometime...

groundswell85's picture
groundswell85's picture
groundswell85 commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 7:24pm

Hey Ben
Can you split the QLD & NNSW forecasts during this time. It’s one thing to have a warning at the top but it’s simply not being adhered to. It will help take the temptation away from QLD boneheads that clearly aren’t driving across the border for ‘essential needs’. Our council met today to discuss shutting the local beaches because the influx of people. Over the weekend was a joke, around 50 4x4’s on Seven Mile beach, majority QLDers. Now snapper etc is closed, it will get much worse.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 8:11pm

Snapper closed? Cool story boofhead. Remember the sharks? The highway goes both ways idiot

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 7:32pm

Snapper looks fun as this arvo! minus the people of course
I had a good lunchtime sesh that surprised me, hasn't been great around lennox area, few fun beachy days here n there.
We'll be close to halfway through april by sunday and its been pretty shit so far, what the hell is going on!
It'll prob start pumping as soon as they ban surfing too :(

bananaman's picture
bananaman's picture
bananaman commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 7:34pm

Any justification for having the cams still on ?
Encouraging travel and congestion.
Thanks

Herbert_mac's picture
Herbert_mac's picture
Herbert_mac commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 8:28pm

I'm not one to comment much on these public forums but I'm pretty sure if you don't like swellnet keeping a service running for paying subscribers you should use another site. I don't surf in Margaret River but I do enjoy checking out their cam now and then. Swellnet is not responsible for the decisions of people, nor is camera footage the only reason in someone is going to go surf. Get off your high horse and go choose some other element of society to vent your frustrations at.

bigwagon's picture
bigwagon's picture
bigwagon commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 8:04am

Well said Herb

orangefield's picture
orangefield's picture
orangefield commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 11:01am

couldn't agree more herb.

juegasiempre's picture
juegasiempre's picture
juegasiempre commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 11:42am

Well said.

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 7:57am

Agreed. The current measures around 'rona are working. We shouldn't need to close any further beaches. Surfcams need't be shut off.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 8:15pm

Refracted S swells and onshore wind south of the border.

Surely that shit ain't being hyped up?

scott.kempton's picture
scott.kempton's picture
scott.kempton commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 9:23pm

Plenty of NSW plates doing drive byes at snapper all the time along with the van loads of backpackers

mbl88's picture
mbl88's picture
mbl88 commented Monday, 6 Apr 2020 at 10:30pm

geez don't you remember only blowins can be from qld

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 3:10pm

Nice pinky.

walkertroy's picture
walkertroy's picture
walkertroy commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 6:06am

Stay at surf at your local simple

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 7:24am

Nice early lines at Snapper Rocks.



Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 3:12pm

A guy on a mal already dropping in at 6:01 AM.

Rust never sleeps .

Made me giggle to see it though so it’s not all bad.

JackStance's picture
JackStance's picture
JackStance commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 7:55am

A no comment, comment.

Breath. Murdoch's empire will one day fail to control our minds.

Dibbley's picture
Dibbley's picture
Dibbley commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 8:37am

So thanks to all the travelling idiots who have been flooding down here every weekend, the 4wd beach accesses in Lennox/Ballina area are now shut. Congrats dickheads.
Reports that a certain local beach down here is as packed as Dbar this morning too...even though the waves are average as hell. If you idiots don’t stop travelling here from Byron/Gold Coast then they are going to close our beaches too.
#staythefuckhome and surf your local, stop putting our people at risk (the cluster of Covid cases are all mainly centred north of here in Byron/Goldy) and ruining our access to our local breaks.

Davo eats a bag of big ones.

bruzzz's picture
bruzzz's picture
bruzzz commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 8:44am

Ignorant selfish people just don’t get the message

Smol

Nthcstsrfr's picture
Nthcstsrfr's picture
Nthcstsrfr commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 9:43am

Spot on Dibbley! Word from council is they are going to close all beach access car parks in Ballina this Easter weekend as there are just too many muppets from Byron and Goldy flooding in every day. They are talking to Police about doing random license checks with $1000 fines for non residents here on non essential travel, let’s hope they Implement that ASAP.
#staythefuckhome and surf your local!

B2K's picture
B2K's picture
B2K commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 10:12am

Saw the boys in blue doing the rounds of the TC carparks last night, moving people on, taking photos of QLD regos and issuing warnings/fines. Got up for a sneaky lure session predawn and low and behold not a single van in the carpark. It has looked like a caravan park for the last month. Apparently you can't prove essential travel for recreational purposes if you're travelling over the border. 1000 reasons to STAY HOME!

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 11:39am

Be an interesting side note to see how they deal with NSW residents with QLD plates. I'd hazard a guess that pretty much every cane toad that has hopped south of the border still has QLD plates.

Ride on

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 1:35pm

You'd think the NSW cops would able to easily follow up on this now.
They always ask 'do you still live at this address?'

curly2alex's picture
curly2alex's picture
curly2alex commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 1:30pm

If swellnet claim cameras do not add to congestion then why did Lennox camera get pulled down ?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 1:48pm

Community pressure because there was zero social licence for Swellnet to suddenly surveill the break for private profit without community assent.

bruzzz's picture
bruzzz's picture
bruzzz commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 2:29pm

How long did that last? 2 days?

Smol

curly2alex's picture
curly2alex's picture
curly2alex commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 7:09pm

Yes it appeared that way...don’t shit where you sleep factor. Not enough pressure being applied to stop surf reporter telling the mob its 5/10 and go surfing when in actual fact it’s shit ?!?

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 10:32am

And how is this any different to any small town remote-ish surf break that now has a camera on it?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 10:34am

No different, except people got off their arse and did something about it.

Surf cams =surveillance by private companies of public assets. Highly dubious concept to a lot of people.

But the demand is there so companies will fulfil it.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 7:07pm

Yeah I’m suprised communities I live near will have it. I was stoked for your community when they pulled the lenno cam down.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 2:38pm

Interesting forecast.


multiple pic upload

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 3:01pm

yeah 18Z model though. see what happens in the next run.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 3:12pm

Still there in the 00z updates but moves fairly quickly through the swell window to the east. EC doesn't like it either.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 3:54pm

yep, thats the problem with synoptic snap shots.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 4:00pm

Totally.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 5:15pm

SUNSHINE COAST IS CLOSED THIS EASTER
https://www.sunshinecoast.qld.gov.au/Council/News-Centre/Stay-home-this-...

Mayor Jamieson said the Queensland Police Service would patrol beaches, parks, nature reserves and public areas and anyone flouting the rules risked being fined.

“Large numbers of people congregating could force more facilities to close,” he said.

“Under the home confinement public health direction a person who resides in Queensland must not leave their principal place of residence except for necessary permitted purposes. This does not include leisure travel.

“Queenslanders should stay in their homes and should not travel. Now is not the time for people to leave their local area.

“This public health direction is currently in place until 19 May 2020 and may be extended further.”

benjis babe's picture
benjis babe's picture
benjis babe commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 7:31pm

I'm freaking out.. there were so many brisso up on the weekend.. the beach was more packed then any xmas crowd.. they need to close the highway just before Caloundra for easter.. with the Gold Coast closed, they r all going to head north

Distracted's picture
Distracted's picture
Distracted commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 5:51pm

Mid Coast Council NSW beaches ie Forster, old Bar etc closed for school holidays from Wed night. Imagine the rest of the coast will end up same way.

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Tuesday, 7 Apr 2020 at 8:49pm

Would have been 30-40 out at the main break here today. Biggest crowds I've seen in two years here. Just a matter of time before its all shut down.

I'm not cheap,
But I'm free.

Hastoes's picture
Hastoes's picture
Hastoes commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 6:14am

Checked the snapper cam. A doz or more out.

aj

bruzzz's picture
bruzzz's picture
bruzzz commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 8:58am

Can I surf? 10 min bike ride to the beach from my place - GC based.

Smol

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 9:46am

raggedy, short period S swell here. no harm, no foul if you miss it.
3/10.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 9:52am

3 coffees . 2 toasted sandwiches. Slightly rainy.

Staying at home is easy on days like today.

Forecast is for a walk on the beach / flick of a lure , swim , bit of beach aerobic activity ( pushups , burpees etc ) then whack on a movie ( surfing or otherwise) and enjoy over a couple of beers.

The horror

The horror

The horror

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 10:15am

I've been sneaking my daily go out with family, 30 mins for physical and mental health.
avoiding good waves, which ironically are the closest ones to me (walking distance).

night-time fishing.
pre-dawn fishing.

got a real nice golden trevally this morning.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 10:32am

Golden !

Is that a regular occurrence around there ? What water temp you got ?

25-26 here a couple of days ago. Got a Spaniard off the current line between the dirty water and the clear. Geez, that fresh hangs around for a while .

Friday looking good to get the Sea Wok back out there. Assuming the fun police don’t crack down.

alexsmith1's picture
alexsmith1's picture
alexsmith1 commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 1:49pm

https://imgur.com/9mrsTSq

Dbah is now closed!

bruzzz's picture
bruzzz's picture
bruzzz commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 1:54pm

You can still walk down the hill

Smol

alexsmith1's picture
alexsmith1's picture
alexsmith1 commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 5:02pm

Why would you say that? So many blow ins the last few days from the northern end of the coast. This weekend is going to be fucked! Don’t tempt them to risk the drive.

bruzzz's picture
bruzzz's picture
bruzzz commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 3:45pm

Most GC cams down. Network issue or is it on purpose?

Smol

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 3:50pm

Network issue through our main data link at Cooly. Techs are headed on site right now.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 4:13pm

Back now.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 6:17pm

Cops booking people in Lennox car park this arvo.

better have your paperwork in order.

seriously though, missing nothing . scrappy 2-3ft bits and pieces with a 70's/80's vibe.

not worth a thousand dollar fine for.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 6:32pm

The question still remains - how far can you travel?

Can you drive from Ballina to Lennox for "surfing exercise"?

Won't be a bad thing if they close all the carparks for Easter.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 6:40pm

The cop in the video Ben posted in the other thread said "exercise in your own shire". So Lennox/Ballina would be fine in his eyes.
But it's still not clear.
I reckon close the carparks and ban car travel for exercise.
Makes it easy to police that way as well.
How many locals drive 500m to the surf anyway? Walk ya lazy bums haha

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 6:53pm

I dare say there'll be a bit of leeway unless you're being ridiculous.

Going by postcode would make it quite straightforward.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 7:03pm

A bloke in Victoria got fined (later rescinded) for riding to a bike trail a few suburbs away.
Yeh I'd be fine with postcode too.