thermalben

The slow decline resumes; then large from the south from Sunday

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 10th July)

Best Days: Thurs: clean, easing E'ly and S/SE swells at open beaches, becoming much less consistent. Fri: small, clean open beaches. Sun/Mon/Tues: large, windy S'ly swells. Only small in SE Qld though Tues should have fun options across the outer points. 

Recap: Another couple of great days across the region, with 4ft of E’ly swell Tuesday across Northern NSW and SE Qld, easing to 3ft today, but bolstered by a long period S/SE groundswell today that offered strong though inconsistent 3-4ft sets across Northern NSW (much smaller in SE Qld). Winds have been offshore both days, resulting in clean conditions.

The Pass still pumping this afternoon

Strong S/SE swell in Coffs this morning

Nice lines outside Narrowneck early Wed, with peaks on the shore

Trailing E'ly lines at the Superbank this morning

Snapper looking fun early Wed, though smaller than yesterday

This week (July 11 - 12)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

Surface conditions will remain excellent for the rest of the week as a series of fronts to the south freshen westerly winds across the East Coast. However, wave heights will ease from the E/NE and the S/SE.

Open beaches in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW may see a few stray 2-3ft sets out of the east hroughout Thursday, but they’ll become a lot less consistent than what we’ve seen over the last few days. The S/SE swell from today is easing across Southern NSW so this trend will become prevalent across Northern NSW tomorrow, though occasional 3ft sets are possible at south swell magnets (south from Byron, more likely earlier rather than later).

Friday morning will see a further small, slow drop in size from Thursday, with extremely inconsistent 2ft sets at exposed beaches at best, easing to 1-2ft throughout the day (and long periods of tiny conditions between waves). Swell magnets will be your best option. 

This weekend (July 13 - 14)

Very small leftovers and strengthening W’ly winds will precede a late SW change as a vigorous front crosses the SE corner of the country. The front won’t properly round the Tasman corner until Saturday morning, so it’s unlikely we’ll see much of an increase (across Northern NSW) until overnight. 

Some exposed locations may see lingering SW winds early Sunday, but overall the front will clear to the east, allowing winds to ease from the west throughout the day. A fresh pulse of S’ly swell will push up to 4-6ft at south swell magnets south of Byron, with much smaller surf at beaches with less southerly exposure (southern corners will be tiny).

Across SE Qld, we’ll see much smaller surf than Northern NSW, and with a wide range in size between regular beaches/outer points (slow 1-2ft sets) and exposed northern ends/south facing beaches (3ft+). 

With light winds expected through the afternoon, these south swell magnets north of the border should offer some good options after lunch, but expect very small surf at most other beaches, especially on the Sunshine Coast which will be slightly smaller than the Gold Coast. 

Next week (July 15 onwards)

A stronger cold front will push into the lower Tasman Sea later Sunday, and a long fetch trailing behind will generate an extended period of large S’ly groundswell for the East Coast from Monday through Tuesday. 

At this stage we should see a peak later Monday, with wave heights likely to push north of 6ft, maybe 6-8ft at a handful of reliable south swell magnets south of Byron (in fact, the squeeze pushing east of Bass Strait overnight Sunday is very impressive - see below - there's a chance for bigger bombs at times).

However, the models are still suggesting more SW (than S) in the broader storm track alignment than is ideal, and this will cap surf size - the fetch is very impressive; had it been a straight S’ly flow we’d have been looking at easy 12-15ft surf. 

Conditions look favourable though blustery on Monday with early W’ly winds tending gusty SW across the Mid North Coast late in the day, persisting overnight across Northern NSW though easing rapidly through Tuesday and becoming lighter from the west. 

We’ll see much less wind north from about Yamba, in fact SE Qld and Far Northern NSW should see mainly light to moderate offshore winds both days. Size will peak on Tuesday in the north so safely assuming exposed spots will be overpowered, you’ll have to hunt around the sheltered points and other protected locations for anything rideable.

SE Qld will pick up disproportionately smaller surf from this system, owing to the poor southerly angle, but there should still be fun waves at the outer points (late Mon, more likely early Tues) with occasional 3ft sets. Exposed northern ends/south facing beaches should be bigger near 4-5ft but it’ll be heavy going with strong sweeps and the like. 

So, the swell and wind outlook looks promising at first glance - but I see a lot of potential for disappointment across vast swathes of SE Qld and Northern NSW, because of the size and direction. There’ll be great waves in some locations (sand pending) but keep your expectations in check for this event. 

The rest of the week maintains a steady progression of fronts below Tasmania and intermittent, moderate S’ly swells for the rest of the week and into next weekend across Northern NSW (only small in SE Qld) - very typical for this time of the year.

More on this in Friday’s update. 

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 8:36am

Another morning of fun beachies. Clean, crisp 2-3ft sets, sunny and offshore. Definitely on the ease though.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 10:16am

Same story here.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 1:27pm

Fun beachies on the Sunny Coast.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 4:08pm

Burger World

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 4:42pm

Crikey, you're a hard man to please.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 6:49pm

Haha I've checked around there a few times this week and it's mostly just take offs - honestly looks better than it is. Scored so many sick waves the last few days though, pretty much surfed out it's been awesome, just not there. Unfortunately looks like it ran out this afternoon, but thank-you-huey it's been a while.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 7:01pm

Bank situation in that surfcam grab reminds me of Woolamai (Phillip Island) - deep gutters running perpendicular to the shoreline. There's a lot of that on the Tweed Coast at the moment, with gems if you look hard enough (gotta be right place/right time though). 

Still some 2ft+ sets this arvo though very slow on the high tide. 

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 5:18pm

Still S/SE sets showing in Coffs.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 8:38am

This east swell just won't die - still clean small lines pushing through the Pass. Technically still falls under the definition of fun beachies though by now I'm assuming everyone is suitable surfed out.
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crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 9:15am

Suitably indeed.
Even yesterday still had really fun waves but today was my first non surf day in weeks.
There's been sand issues and out of whack weather patterns but the back half of Autumn and early Winter has been pretty much non stop quality for me.
:-)

I'm not cheap,
But I'm free.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 9:26am

Same down here, the first non-surf day in maybe a month? Excellent run.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 9:39am

surfed out?
not even close.

after the worst summer and autumn in living memory we are only just getting off the starting blocks here.
there's a helluva lot of pent up surf capacity to go yet before we get surfed out.

We're still yet to get a proper A grade day here, let alone an A grade week where it's down tools and surf your brains out.

brevil's picture
brevil's picture
brevil commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 10:14am

Last 3 weeks have been great . Shoulders are wrecked

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 10:41am

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

East coast is so busy..

A post shared by JESSE LITTLE (@jesselittlephoto) on

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 1:33pm

Magic! Saw footage as good, and as empty, from where Noah roams this week too.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 1:35pm

Def looks like some fun beachies. 

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 2:34pm

Back to a sea of greens and blues.