No end in sight from the southern quadrant

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 31st May)

Best Days: Most days will have plenty of southerly swell - with quite a few days being very sizeable in Northern NSW - but local conditions will dictate the best waves - Sun is the pick of the short term, then next Thurs/Fri when winds ease again. SE Qld should have small waves across the outer points Sat PM, Sun AM and then Tues/Wed (banks pending). 

Recap: Thursday started off very small at most coasts, bu a small south swell built across south swell magnets south of Byron into the afternoon. Today we’ve seen a slow increase in size throughout the day, though mainly across Northern NSW with tiny surf persisting throughout SE Qld. Most south facing beaches have seen 3-4ft sets but the larger increase expected later today (mainly Mid North Coast) isn’t showing yet - though it has increased across Southern NSW with sets in the 6ft range. So it isn’t far off. Conditions have been generally clean both days in all regions with light winds. 

This weekend (June 1 - 2)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

No change to the weekend forecast. 

We’ve got an extended period of strong south swell ahead, and Saturday morning will see large surf across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, south from Byron Bay. Set waves are likely to reach anywhere between 6ft and 8ft though freshening SW tending S’ly winds will confine the best waves to sheltered points and southern ends, where it’ll be much smaller. Keep in mind there’ll be a lot of water moving around regardless of your destination, so make sure you spend plenty of time assessing the lineup before you paddle out.

Across SE Qld, this energy will probably behave much in the manner of most south swells: much smaller, very inconsistent and generally patchy for quality surfing opportunities. Local winds will be lighter here than further south but we’ll still see a swing from early sou’westers around to the south. 

Most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches should maintain 2ft waves with the odd 2-3ft bombs at the outer points, but exposed northern ends and south swell magnets should see occasional 3-4ft+ waves at the height of the activity (Saturday afternoon, smaller earlier). So, expect smaller surf early Saturday morning.

On Sunday, an gradual easing trend will kick in but it won’t be as fast and pronounced as we’re used to seeing from most southerly swells, thanks to a series of secondary fronts racing through the southern Tasman Sea. This should maintain 5-6ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron early morning, abating to 4-5ft throughout the day, and the usual size caveats will apply to locations not directly open to the south.

SE Qld will also see a slow drop in size throughout Sunday, from 2ft+ to 1-2ft at most beaches, but bigger at exposed northern ends, easing from 3-4ft to 2-3ft.

Local conditions look much better on Sunday with mainly light variable winds and sea breezes. So it’ll be worth spending some time driving around looking for suitable banks. 

However, I'm really not confident on the prospects of good waves this weekend on any coast - there's simply too many potential variables likely to trip things up. 

Next week (June 3 onwards)

We’ve still got a large Tasman Low modelled to form in the southern Tasman Sea on Monday, the result of the merger of two systems - a mid latitude and a polar front, both approaching our swell window over the weekend. 

Monday will see surf size level out in the 3-5ft range at south facing beaches south of Byron (smaller elsewhere, and much smaller throughout SE Qld away from exposed northern ends. Conditions will be clean with light offshore winds through the morning, though they’ll freshen from the SW across the Mid North Coast into the afternoon as the Tasman Low develops.  

This Tasman Low looks like it’s going to remain slow moving for a couple of days, with southerly gales inside our short range swell window generating very large surf around 8ft, maybe 8-10ft for south swell magnets (south of Byron) by Tuesday afternoon, easing gradually throughout Wednesday. Accompanying winds will be fresh to strong from the SW tending S/SW both days, so only sheltered spots will be worthwhile (and they’ll be much smaller).

Across SE Qld, we’ll see much smaller size due the direction but most of the region could still pick up 3-4ft sets. However only the points will be clean under fresh, gusty S’ly winds and given the state of the sand at the moment, there’s really no way to have confidence on likely surf conditions. 

A series of strong follow up fronts originating in the Southern Ocean are expected to push through the lower Tasman Sea, and maintain elevated southerly swells across Southern NSW through the latter part of the week. There's a good chance we’ll see 6ft+ surf at south facing beaches south from Byron from this next sequence , probably around Friday, give or take.

To be honest, this latter sequence looks much better for the region's surf prospects, as it’ll have been generated from further away (so swell quality will be higher) and the storm track will be a little further east into the Tasman Sea, so local conditions will be under the influence of a broad ridge high pressure, resulting in light winds. 

So, if you're fully booked early next week, don’t worry too much about the large surf as the second half of the week is currently my pick of the forecast period.

Let’s hope the next five days of solid southerly swells unwelds those banks too.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!

Not much surf below 5ft for the next eight days in Coffs Harbour. Red circles highlight the best conditions.

Comments

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Friday, 31 May 2019 at 11:24pm

Same shit different day.
"Nice south swell but open beaches will bear the brunt of the wind and points will be cleaner but a fraction of the size. And fuk all for QLD."

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Saturday, 1 Jun 2019 at 1:16pm

QLD's borders just seem to get extended a couple of hundred kms to the sth during these sth swell regimes.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Saturday, 1 Jun 2019 at 12:24pm

The lack of banks is killing it.

Mata's picture
Mata's picture
Mata Saturday, 1 Jun 2019 at 8:03pm

South swell slowly filling in north of the border (showing on the M’bah bouy), hopefully some friendly light winds tmrw morning on the northern ends

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 2 Jun 2019 at 8:57am

Solid at D'Bah this AM.
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freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 2 Jun 2019 at 9:09am

dropped and gone really gurgly here. Despite the wind being offshore all night that S/SE flow must be close by.

Fuckkng lol at surf report saying it's 6ft+.
Joke.

theinsider's picture
theinsider's picture
theinsider Sunday, 2 Jun 2019 at 11:46am

is this a dummy pass Freeride? I'm gonna jump in my car and cruise down to Lenny to be sure, to be sure... Maybe the high tide swallowed it?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 2 Jun 2019 at 12:30pm

seriously, half of QLD is here, and it's gurgly low quality 4ft, stupidly crowded.

it was better on the high

Dbah looks better

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 2 Jun 2019 at 12:03pm

4-6ft sets on the Tweed this morning.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Sunday, 2 Jun 2019 at 12:51pm

Don't reckon I've seen a wave over 4ft yesterday or today.
Regardless, with these banks it's all a bit academic really, and the crowds actually make you have a bit of a giggle, it's pretty crazy for what it is.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Sunday, 2 Jun 2019 at 1:53pm

6ft sets at ballina pipe yesterday, crowd looked bad from the hill but once in the water wasn't a problem.
Was pushing 8ft out the back when we came in.
Lennox on the other hand looked small and hell busy

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 3 Jun 2019 at 12:02pm

A little bigger than expected this morning, with some lovely groundswell lines pushing through. Perfect conditions too, no sweep either which was very welcome.

Water temps still 23 at the buoy, it's still boardies/vest weather for some crew (not me though, wind chill bites me every time).

redmondo's picture
redmondo's picture
redmondo Monday, 3 Jun 2019 at 12:08pm

Immaculate conditions with some nice waves. Upsetting seeing someone trying to slash it apart when the waves dictate graceful lines.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Monday, 3 Jun 2019 at 12:21pm

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaa
Cooking this morning, had such a great sesh, found a bank with reeling 5ft rights n lefts, just me n a mate for nearly 3 hours.
My last wave took me 200 meters or more, ON A BLOODY BEACHY
Had to go sit an exam otherwise i'd be out there now, marinating in those glorious walls

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 3 Jun 2019 at 12:23pm

Which coast mate? Was pretty fun on the Tweed too.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 3 Jun 2019 at 1:05pm

Odd set standing up on the reef at Narrowneck too.
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dannyp's picture
dannyp's picture
dannyp Monday, 3 Jun 2019 at 4:32pm

Much more energy than expected today on the northern SC... especially with the M’ba buoy reading just over half a metre... a little fat and straight even at dead low tide but fun sets to nurse on the fish. Couple of sets came through and broke a good 50m out past where I was hugging the outside bank... easily (and very surprisingly) overhead. Strong groundswell too... sent a couple of punters on the inside back to the beach!