Craptacular end to the first month of the year

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 23rd January)

Best Days: Friday morning across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, before the wind picks up. Small but clean S'ly swell. Late Sunday (Mid North Coast) and early Monday (remaining Northern NSW coasts) inside sheltered northern corners, with a small long period S/SE swell, though winds will be up form the north.

Recap: Nah, there’s been nothing of any interest. A small E’ly swell in SE Qld but otherwise tiny surf and problematic winds. 

This week (Jan 24 - 25)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

A weak trough pushing up the Southern NSW coast will stall over the Mid North Coast tonight, temporarily disrupting the northerly airstream across our region.

We’ll still see a northerly flow in the north, though it’ll be much lighter in strength than today. To the south, variable winds will envelop parts of Northern NSW, with moderate southerly tending variable winds in the southern region (south of Coffs Harbour).

This is all a moot point with very little swell on the cards for Thursday, just small residual E/NE swell in SE Qld and tiny leftovers in Northern NSW.

Friday morning is probably your best window for a wave, though you’ll have to surf early to beat a developing N’ly tending NE breeze into the afternoon.

I’m not expecting much, if any new swell in SE Qld (just a continuation of meagre E/NE energy from a modest trade flow in the Coral Sea this week), however Northern NSW will pick up a small S’ly swell from a broad front associated with today’s advancing trough.

The front has pushed through the lower Tasman Sea, generating a southerly swell that’ll slowly build 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches (south of Byron). The sets will be inconsistent, and surf size will be smaller from this source at beaches not open to the south. We won't see much, if anything in SE Qld.

Also worth mentioning is a small but reasonable E/SE fetch developing between the trough and a small high pressure ridge extending east from Tasmania on Thursday. This will generate peaky E/SE swells into Friday, though mainly across Southern NSW. Wave heights will become smaller as you head further north, so I can’t see much energy impacting anywhere north from Coffs, but to the south (i.e. lower Mid North Coast) there may be a couple of feet of peaky energy in the mix. 

Small fleeting sets are also possible out of the east later Friday from a small sub tropical low NE of New Zealand, but the fetch length is too short and it’s too far away from the mainland to make much of an impact on our region (see chart below).

 

This weekend (Jan 26 - 27)

Looks like a pretty ordinary weekend of waves ahead. 

The trades will slowly redevelop in the lower Coral Sea and this will gradually build E/NE swell across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, but no great size is expected. We may see some small, faint E'ly swell from the sub-tropical low NE of New Zealand, but I still don't think there'll be much size in it.

Worse, a stationary high in the Tasman Sea will freshen (in the north) and strengthen (in the south) northerly winds both days. As such options will be limited to a handful of sheltered northern corners. 

There is one swell worth keeping an eye out for though, across Northern NSW on Sunday afternoon. An intense polar low off the ice shelf well south of New Zealand is generating a new long period S/SE swell that should reach the Mid North Coast around lunchtime and build into the afternoon.

Satellite images have confirmed 50kt+ winds at its core in the last twenty four hours, aimed nicely into Northern NSW’s swell window (though a long way from the mainland), so we can now be a little more confident on its arrival. Model guidance is holding steady with its estimates (from Monday, see below), though it’s shunted back the timing a few hours, which points to a peak in size overnight Sunday, though the more southern regions (lower Mid North Coast) could see very late afternoon sets in the 3ft+ range if we’re lucky. Let’s fine tune the outlook in Friday’s notes. However, I’m not confident on an arrival in the Far North before the sun goes down (and its direction will be pretty acute for SE Qld too).

Next week (Jan 28 onwards)

Still nothing amazing to get excited about. 

Model guidance maintains fresh northerly winds across the Mid North Coast from Monday thru’ Thursday (ouch!) with moderate NE winds about SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. So any swell we see in the region will be accompanied with below-average conditions. 

As for surf, there is a suggestion that the trades are about to reactivate through the northern Tasman and lower Coral Sea early in the week, which suggests a spell of trade swells mid-late next week and beyond. 

More on this in Friday’s update. 

Comments

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Wednesday, 23 Jan 2019 at 8:23pm

Craptacular end to a craptacular 3 months.

NickT's picture
NickT's picture
NickT Wednesday, 23 Jan 2019 at 10:04pm

The last three months have had plenty of epic sessions between the Goldy to Byron stretch. Plenty of beachies with really good banks. It's all about timing and having the time I guess

joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 8:53am

I was up North for a couple of weeks over Christmas and NYs and it awesome for that time of year. Consistent 3ft with some 4ft days, good days on the back beaches and even a sneaky Lennox sessions. If you didn't get waves you were not looking.

crustylapel's picture
crustylapel's picture
crustylapel Thursday, 24 Jan 2019 at 8:04am

MNC dismal over the last few months

hellomoon's picture
hellomoon's picture
hellomoon Thursday, 24 Jan 2019 at 11:37am

Dont even get out of bed for the early sessions anymore,waste of time. I wont bother until next cyclone,enough of this little grovel shit.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 24 Jan 2019 at 1:46pm

I prefer to get up , have some breakfast first and then get my heart broken . The pain is easier to take after some fruit and a couple of coffees.

Water is nice for a swim. Dolphins frolicking.

amb's picture
amb's picture
amb Thursday, 24 Jan 2019 at 2:06pm

Ben i thought the word "Craptacular" was reserved for Middleton?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 24 Jan 2019 at 2:15pm

The special occasion warranted an intervention.

surfiebum's picture
surfiebum's picture
surfiebum Thursday, 24 Jan 2019 at 2:33pm

There was a half hour this morning on the sc as a rip and sandbar lined up little lefts. I had fun and I was pretty happy with things.
Then I got to shore, had a good look at it and realised it was small grovelly shit and I am beyond desperate for a decent wave....

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly Thursday, 24 Jan 2019 at 2:53pm

I'm looking forward to Fridays notes.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 24 Jan 2019 at 3:02pm

I'll be the positive voice here for a change.

I've been enjoying this genuine baby food. My son and his mate have been pumped as hell because they can get out the back and surf all the open beachies.
They've been getting the best waves of their lives, and I've been stoked on their stoke.

Today, god bless us, we had a S'ly change despite the BOM forecasting N'ly winds (to which we shall no doubt return tomorrow)....and in small running lefts filled with cornflake weed they had a ball.
My grovelling is getting a real workout.

things do look better first week of Feb as the trade belt E of NZ gets a squeeze from a retrograding low.

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly Thursday, 24 Jan 2019 at 3:22pm

And a chance of the winds going south of east for the MNC. Fingers crossed.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Thursday, 24 Jan 2019 at 4:34pm

Well we all complained in years gone by when it pumped every long weekend and through school hols and would turn to shit for the weekday crew.
Well I can't wait till the kids go back to school and it starts cranking.

*Written while on my knees praying to Huey.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 11:09am

hahaha

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 5:42am

Had a short but fun lil' sesh last night, there wasn't much size but there was zero wind, the swell was quite peaky and although barely 1-2ft on the sets, was more than enough to get up, pump once or twice and hit the section (riding a standard shorty too, not a high volume board).

Much more satisfying that I thought it'd be.

Water temps were like a bath - seemed to be close to the Tweed buoy's reading of 26 degrees - and I didn't observe a single other surfer as far as my failing eyesight could see ('bout half a kay in either direction).

redmondo's picture
redmondo's picture
redmondo Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 7:54am

My BCM bulk cubic meters of foam board has provided some fun.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 8:14am

Oily little longboard session this morning. Just me and the dolphins.
Trying not to jinx things but hoping the charts hold out for something a bit more solid from the east next week!

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 11:08am

Definitely a little bit of fun south swell popped up around the wall this morning in big prawn territory. Fun before wind and tide came up.

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 12:39pm

Please, lt there be waves soon. I'm starting to think of buying a foil board

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 12:40pm

Noooooooooooooooooooooo!!!

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 12:43pm

As the bearer of consistent bad news, I blame you personally :p

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 2:16pm

Nice little bit of grunt in the south swell this morning...a fun session for sure. Late in the morning your standard crew of "look at me's" rocked up with a filmer. Turned out to be Harry Bryant, Dion Aguis and a few others. Impressed with HB's wave sense and timing in the by then deteriorating conditions. The others not so much.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 2:19pm

What’s your general location. Crg ?

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 3:36pm

Mid north coast these days.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 4:49pm

We’re you at a left wedge ?

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 6:51pm

It was a wedgy backbeach protected from the north wind and open to the south swell. Probably the best spot along my coast today and had mostly lefts and a right bouncing back of a rip. Fun before the tide got too high and the wind clocked a little too much east.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 3:41pm

Nice to see the S'ly swell reach your way. Hit Sydney around 4pm yesty so knew it was on the way.. but sometimes they're a bit hit and miss north from Seal Rocks.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 3:53pm

There was already a south swell in the water in Ballina yesterday arvo when I went down at 6pm.
3ft on the sets but lacking grunt.

A tad smaller this morning, but more even.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 5:33pm

Really? Buoy data doesn't support any new S'ly swell in the water yesterday, and it only reached Sydney around 4pm (which was close to expectations). 

The spot I surf on the Tweed Coast around that time was certainly not very well exposed to S'ly swells, but had a peaky 1-2ft E/NE swell. 

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 5:37pm

It was definitely heading in a North direction and peaking up a bit with some other swell that must've been in the water.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 9:23pm

I'll second the doggys report. It came up sth last night and held through this morning. Was stoked the data didn't support it because it seemed to keep the crowd to none. Gotta love the odd bug in the machine. Yew!

Andrewhartmann's picture
Andrewhartmann's picture
Andrewhartmann Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 2:21pm

Hey Ben any idea when the Park Beach cam be back working. ? I travel about an hour for a surf and a great tool to know if it’s worth the trip or not

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 2:35pm

Heading down next week, been waiting on some parts to come in. Thanks for your patience. 

Jay-Jay's picture
Jay-Jay's picture
Jay-Jay Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 5:37pm

Is a Friday report being done this week?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 5:40pm

Doing it right now. Still only 4:37pm Qld time. Will be up soon. 

Jay-Jay's picture
Jay-Jay's picture
Jay-Jay Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 6:19pm

Cheers