South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 21st January)

Best Days: No great days. Tues/Wed have a small south swell for south swell magnets in Northern NSW, though winds are tricky. A small E/NE swell should persist at exposed SE Qld beaches on Tues. Most other days should see little waves but winds won't be great for the most part. 

Recap: Wave heights have remained small across most coasts fore the last few days. A small trade swell provided intermittent 2ft sets across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW on Sunday, building a smidge more today, but it’s been pretty slow and lacklustre. Saturday’s tiny waves were accompanied by freshening N’ly winds, whilst Sunday and today have seen generally light variable winds across most coasts. A smal S'ly swell was also present across the Mid North Coast today.

Small S'ly swell at Coffs this AM

Small E/NE trade swell at D'Bah this AM.. and no-one out! (yeah, yeah.... it's not that great yada yada)

This week (Jan 22 - 25)

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Let's cut to the chase for the bulk of this week: it looks very small, and very lacklustre for most coasts, and the northerly breeze will be up Tuesday and Wednesday too.

There are some windows of opportunity though.

Our current source of small trade swell will persist through Tuesday and then vanish, so we’ll see similar levels of weak waves for the next two days (only really across SE Qld, just edging down into Far Northern NSW). Given the significant tidal ranges around the current (super) full moon, there’ll be wide variations in surfability. 

Light variable winds and sea breezes are expected north from Yamba on Tuesday, but we’ll see freshening N’ly winds south form Yamba, and they’ll extend north into Wednesday - though may ease across the Mid North Coast as a trough envelops the region. So, winds will be best in the north on Tuesday and in the south on Wednesday.

The most prominent energy of the forecast period is a small, long period S’ly swell currently pushing up through the Tasmanian region, generated by a powerful front late last week and over the weekend. 

It was poorly aligned within our swell window, so the glancing energy will only favour south swell magnets, providing inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets across Northern NSW through Tuesday (more likely the afternoon than the morning) before easing through Wednesday. However this swell won't be reliable and will bypass most beaches, even some of those with reasonable southerly exposure, and won’t favour anywhere north of the border. So keep your expectations low. 

The second half of the week will see small surf mainly across Northern NSW, from a multitude of swell sources - though none are expected to contribute any major size. 

A developing trough across Southern NSW will build E’ly winds along its southern flank, though with it being aimed into the South Coast we’ll see much smaller size to the north - perhaps some 2ft sets across the Mid North Coast into Thursday and Friday, smaller in the Far North. 

Another front will push into the southern Tasman overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday, generating a brief flush of S’ly swell up to 2-3ft at south swell magnets south of Byron on Thursday afternoon and Friday. 

The parent Southern Ocean low to the fronts that generated Tuesday’s swells is lingering well south-east of New Zealand at the moment, and two interesting fetches will generate small long period S/SE swell for Southern NSW later this week and into the weekend. The main fetch is poorly aligned, but stationary - so we’ll see a minor spread back into the coast around Friday, though I doubt we'll see much more than an inconsistent 2ft set across Northern NSW's south swell magnets. The second swell will arrive over the weekend and is detailed below.

And lastly, a small sub tropical low developing well SE of Fiji at the moment is expected to generate a small E’ly swell for the end of the week and the weekend. I doubt we’ll see much more than a very inconsistent 2ft set at most beaches - though this will provide a more uniform size distribution across SE Qld and Northern NSW coasts, than any of the other swells mentioned above.

Winds should become variable in parts on Thursday before resuming from the north again across most coasts on Friday. So keep your expectations low, and aim for Thursday if you're desperate for a paddle. 

This weekend (Jan 26 - 27)

We’ve got some interesting swell ahead for the weekend, but ultimately you’ll need to exercise some caution if you're planning any highway miles as it looks like we’ve got freshening northerly winds on the cards.

The small, long range E’ly swell expected late Friday should maintain infrequent 2ft sets across most open beaches Saturday, and into Sunday morning. 

A small long period S/SE swell will advance along the Southern NSW coast on Saturday, reaching Northern NSW throughout Sunday. It will have been generated by a small secondary polar low strengthening well south of New Zealand from Tuesday through Wednesday. The models are throwing up some interesting numbers for this event - estimating 0.5m at 14.6 seconds in Coffs Harbour by 6pm Sunday. Obviously, we’ll see a later arrival across far Northern NSW, which pushes the peak energy into darkness. 

These numbers would suggest solid though very inconsistent 3-4ft surf across exposed south facing beaches but I’m a little cautious given the distant swell source, and the erratic nature of any fetch sitting close to (if not on top of) the ice shelf. The models also usually undercall swells from this region, which further reduces my confidence. 

I do like the sustained nature of this system, so I think we’ll see good surf prospects from it, but let’s wait to see how our mid-week satellite data comes back. Certainly no point getting too excited given the N’ly wind forecast at this stage either. 

Next week (Jan 28 onwards)

The Southern Ocean storm track doesn’t look great for our region next week, and the Tasman Sea will remain devoid of activity. 

However we are looking at resurgence of activity across the top end (Far Northern Qld) next week, in the form of a tropical low or cyclone that'll likely track in close proximity to the Queensland coastline.

Whilst this doesn’t point to a specific swell event, it does suggest we’ll see an infeed of tropical moisture towards southern regions, which is one of several required ingredients for the development of any significant kind of weather system in the Coral and/or Tasman Seas. 

In short: the end of January and early February are shaping up to be a little more on the dynamic side for swell prospects, compared to the last few weeks.

More on this in Wednesday’s update.