The synoptic chart says it all: a cut-off mid latitude low just SW of the state is driving strong westerly winds into the lower SW of Western Australia.
Saturday morning should offer the best waves of the weekend. But, keep your expectations low as there’s not going to be a lot of quality.
Not much more than an easing trend expected this weekend.
At this stage we should see solid 6-8ft surf across exposed parts of the South Coast on Wednesday, whilst he Mid Coast is looking at tidally influenced 2-3ft surf throughout the day (smaller on the outgoing phase).
I’m really impressed with the way the models are tracking this system through the Southern Ocean - it reaches maturity in an ideal part of the swell window (south of WA) but also has most of its initial stages at a reasonably low latitude (50S or lower) which means it’ll spend a lot of time within our swell window.
Unfortunately, we’ve had a downgrade in the strength of Thursday’s southerly change.
Friday looks much better with a high pressure system moving across the region, allowing light variable winds to envelop the coastal margin.
New S'ly swell for tomorrow with a morning offshore and afternoon sea breezes favouring south swell magnets. Easing Friday with similar conditions. Nothing too major into the weekend or next week.
Easing clean S/SW swell tomorrow morning, fading further Friday. Small swell for Saturday and then tiny until mid-next week.
Small onshore waves tomorrow, becoming large Friday afternoon and Saturday with strong onshore winds. Clean and easing around Perth Sunday and Monday. Large new S/SW groundswell for Tuesday with morning offshore.
