Tricky long period swell for a couple of days, more south swell next week

thermalben

Tricky long period swell for a couple of days, more south swell next week

thermalben

The image below shows storm force winds around the low, and also highlights the main headache I have at the moment - working out how much of this fetch is shadowed behind Tasmania, and how much sits just inside the western periphery of our acute south swell window. More in the Forecaster Notes. 

Interesting period of flukey south swell, some of it solid

thermalben

Interesting period of flukey south swell, some of it solid

thermalben

The main synoptic feature is a deep Southern Ocean low that's expected to *almost* bomb just W/SW of Tasmania. By ‘almost’, I mean ‘not quite reach the threshold requirements for a bombing low’, which is a 24hPa drop in 24 hours, though it certainly will come pretty close. More in the Forecaster Notes.