TC Lucas will remain slow moving south of New Caledonia for a few days. Current model guidance suggests a reintensification overnight Thursday into Friday morning (see below), aimed perfectly within our swell window.
Our focus is firmly fixed to the Northern Tasman Sea, where an established trade flow over the last few days is being supercharged by two tropical cyclones: ex-TC Ana (now NE of New Zealand) and TC Lucas (tracking over New Caledonia).
A strong, large and windy swell from the north-east is due over the coming days, cleaning up as it eases.
Nothing too amazing with lots of wind and not from the best directions with the coming swells.
A couple of decent swells for the South West region, but windy and tricky at times.
The coming couple of days will become windy, varying at times but conditions will be favourable for the South Coast and worth making the most of.
Make the most of the coming days of swell and favourable winds. There'll be swell early next week but with poor winds.
As discussed over the last week, we’ve got an active MJO phase across the region, and a strong high pressure ridge across New Zealand is cradling a conveyor belt of tropical lows, including one remnant and two existing tropical cyclones (TC Bina, TC Lucas, TC Ana - see recent chart from JTWC below).
There are more curveballs in this week’s synoptics than a major league baseball team.
Plenty of swell on the way from the north-eastern quadrant but with plenty of weather as well.
