An uninspiring finish to the year

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 26th December)

Best Days: Sat PM: going out on a limb, but there'll probably be a window of good waves through Saturday afternoon - I'm pegging it to be north of Ballina and south of the Gold Coast. Otherwise most days should see a steady supply of small but workable E'ly swell across the entire region (you'll just have to work around local winds)

Recap: The expected long range east swell has been a bit of an under performer, with set waves only reaching 2ft across open stretches. Northerly winds have also spoiled conditions for the most part, although some regions have seen early nor’westers.

This weekend (Dec 27 - 28)

The computer models have been shifting around the position of the weekend’s North Coast ridge, so the corresponding forecast now has a little less confidence than a few days ago. The main issue right here and now is that the models are split as to whether the ridge will push over the border (EC keeps the ridge just south of the border, but ACCESS and GFS push it just north). 

Also uncertain is what will happen on Sunday - most models gradually slide the ridge south, but some models weaken it whilst others (EC) form a closed low that hugs the coast in a fast southward trajectory.

Either way the surf forecast is broadly much the same as Wednesday, although I don’t think we’ll see quite as much (junky) short range swell - from the ridge - as previously thought. And with low confidence on where the ridge is going to be positioned, it’s hard to know exactly which coast will pick up the biggest waves from this source (say 3-4ft+ sets).

Otherwise, we’re looking at a slow, steady intermittent east swell motoring along across all regions - based on today’s average performance, I’ve pegged back wave heights to 2ft+ at remaining open beaches (i.e. much of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts) both days.

If we’re lucky, the best region for waves will be just north of the ridge where local winds won’t be too strong but we’ll hopefully see a northward spread of swell from this near source (say, 3ft+ sets?).

If I had to take a punt as to where this scenario might eventuate, I think Saturday afternoon north of about Ballina but south of about the Gold Coast is the most likely coastline. Anywhere south of this region is at a much greater risk of fresh SE winds, north of this region is at risk of not picking up any short range SE swell off the ridge. I'll be very interested to see what happens.

Through Sunday expect the local SE swell off the ridge to ease quickly in size, leaving just residual long range east trade swell with a return to NE winds about most coastal regions north of Coffs Harbour - but probably light and variable early morning. South of Coffs, we’ll probably see initially fresh SE winds as the ridge moves south, tending moderate NE later. Aim for an early surf for the best waves.

Next week (Dec 29 onwards)

Monday looks to see a couple of feet of inconsistent E/NE swell from the stationary trade belt north and north-east of New Zealand however we’re expecting a return to freshening northerly winds, which will probably write off surf prospects at most locations from early-mid morning onwards. Any short range influence from the weekend's ridge is expected to have vanished by this time (barring an unexpected about-face from the computer models, whch I suppose can't be completely ruled out either).

On Tuesday, a gusty southerly change will push along the southern NSW coast and N’ly winds are expected to swing NW ahead of it - there won’t be much new swell aside from the same intermittent long range E’ly energy - but as winds veer counter clockwise there should be some options at open beaches. Keep your expectations low though.

This southerly change is not expected to impact the Northern NSW or SE Qld regions in a great way (other than a shallow wind change) however it’ll be associated with a broader LWT passage, which means we'll see a couple of frontal systems track through our immediate south swell window, resulting in a couple of days of waves rather than a single afternoon pulse (as is often the case).

Therefore, we’re expecting plenty of small south swell through Wednesday (and maybe even early Thursday) at south facing beaches in Northern NSW - probably up to 2-3ft - however local winds will probably spoil conditions here. A building ridge should supply some short range SE swell into the mix, and this will probably benefit the semi-exposed points of SE Qld the most. And there'll be a continuing supply of small trade swell from our friendly long range source. Stay tuned for later updates on this as we firm up the details through next week.

Elsewhere, there’s nothing significant lining up on the long term charts apart from a developing ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea mid-next week that should be a source of small east swell later next week and into the following weekend. Hopefully next week will shed some light on the possibilities of a decent New Year swell!

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 11:41am

Interesting wind obs this morning - fresh to strong S/SE at Yamba, S'ly at Evans Head and SW at Byron (so, clockwise with increasing northern latitude). Lots of small lines showing on our Pass surfcam too. The arvo could produce some fun waves across some parts of the Far North Coast.


davetherave's picture
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davetherave Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 1:20pm

thanks ben, i told yank mate to go tweed coast or to byron road trip. showers increasing here in tweed, interesting to see what trough does?

spidermonkey's picture
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spidermonkey Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 1:47pm

Not to sure on the sunny Coast report today,up the North end we,ve had offshores and tubing 3ft from 630 thru to 930 about when the tide swallowed the banks.one of the best mornings for a while.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 2:34pm

According to the Maroochydore AWS, winds swung from the north to the S/SE at 7:15am, then pretty much touched all points of the compass as a series of thunderstorms delivered 9mm of rain in two hours. I'd hazard a guess - judging by our surf reporter's daily pic - that conditions were much different in the south (of the Sunny Coast) than in the north, which would be directly related to the thundery activity.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 2:37pm

Actually, just checked the radar archive since 1am and there was an impressive line of t'storms immediately off the coast through the early hours of the morning, which pushed ashore around dawn and gradually slipped south and weakened.

Meanwhile, the Tewantin AWS (which I don't normally use as it's too far inland IMO, and doesn't pick up some coastal airstreams very well) recorded light W/SW through S/SW winds during the period you mentioned above. As this is just west of Noosa it fits in with your observations. 

paddydog's picture
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paddydog Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 4:09pm

Got some good ones north of coolum till about 9.30 when the wind went south and swell appeared to really slow, but before that straight offshore 3foot sets with some push, nice.

donweather's picture
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donweather Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 4:51pm

Swell looks to have pulsed this arvo too (from the east).

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 6:02pm

Last Wednesday, I was chatting to Ben Re' longer term cyclonic outlook for Qld........ My gut still says the same now as then.... I'll repeat plus ad....... First 2 weeks of Jan, keep an eye on the Solomons region.... Solomons thru to Vanuatu... Centre of the circle - say 163 x 12s...... 600km radius..... Watch that space........ It may seem like a huge area, but compared to the whole south pacific, it's quite a small region............ And watch the Gulf of Carpentaria...... A cyclone forming and crossing the Cape into the coral sea is a longshot.... If one forms, it's just as likely to head south and drench the inland... My main point is we are due for a gulf storm, and we haven't had an east travelling gulf cyclone reform in the pacific for a long time........

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 6:56pm

With the MJO coinciding with an active monsoon trough the top end looks set to deliver something. But my money is on WA/NT.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 7:33pm

My comments were Qld specific, Don..... TC Kate has already formed out near the Cocos.... Don't really care..... I'm talking say new years eve thru first 1/2 of Jan with only Qld in mind...

donweather's picture
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donweather Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 8:36pm

I'm not talking about Kate. Talking about the same timeframe you're referring too and I don't think QLD will see a TC during this time. But I do think WA/NT will see one during this time.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 9:10pm

Mate couldn't give 2 hoots about W.A.... Don't care.... They could have 3 cyclones and it wouldn't interest me... Looking specifically at qld.... Cheers.

paddydog's picture
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paddydog Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 6:53pm

Wow just read the sunshine coast surf report for today, a bit different where I was

spidermonkey's picture
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spidermonkey Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 7:22pm

well thanks for confirming my obs. thermalben,no disrespect for Your reporter intended,it did indeed look crap down His way,bad luck!I,m often pleasantly surprised by how little wind is needed in Our long distance East swell window for a decent wave.The ascat image has been underwhelming for that fetch over the last week,but hey,can't complain.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Saturday, 27 Dec 2014 at 8:38pm

It's all about length of fetch and time of fetch. You can only have a 20knt wind blowin but if she blows over a long enough distance and over a long enough time, you'll have some fun swell from her. And real pulsey too.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Sunday, 28 Dec 2014 at 7:35am

Wow. That S'ly fetch has certainly punched above its weight this morning.

davetherave's picture
davetherave's picture
davetherave Monday, 29 Dec 2014 at 1:58am

d-bah had what i would call surfable, shit banks though, but someone would have had some good ones- tide main priority.
sheepy, the gulf is indeed very very hot. talking to big bro in cairns xmas day, never heard him say it's too hot, this year he emphasised it was really really hot.
rain event at most i would say.
water so hot i think coral sea action if attracted to west will go for gulf to feed.
wind sleeping here tonight, short lived punch, but may be time or regional.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog Monday, 29 Dec 2014 at 9:19am

Dave, I remember you and I scored 4 foot cove from an east moving gulf system.. Cyclone Dominic?.... 1982.... About the best cove I ever seen.....

wellymon's picture
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wellymon Monday, 29 Dec 2014 at 5:19pm

Great little smooth peaky beachies yesterday, shoulder to head and so enjoyable.

trippergreenfeet's picture
trippergreenfeet's picture
trippergreenfeet Monday, 29 Dec 2014 at 8:21pm

Who would believe that Bullies turned on for 2 hrs yesterday (in December), 6' with the odd 8' bomb - was light SSE but that kinda made it better as the takeoff was really bowling out and mean.

I gambled and scored...waited for the tide to drop and swell to kick and had a great lunch time solo sesh to end the year, yew.

wellymon's picture
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wellymon Monday, 29 Dec 2014 at 9:26pm

Nice work Nana's socks :)
Yeeeeewwww

trippergreenfeet's picture
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trippergreenfeet Tuesday, 30 Dec 2014 at 8:43am

Hahahaha...nana socks...you don't know how apt that is. I'm wearing the most awesome pair of knitted woolen house socks my nan gave me for xmas right now...oh so warm and comfy :-)