Good Saturday options across the Mid North Coast

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 21st November)

Best Days: Sat AM: Mid North Coast looking really good under an early SW breeze. Mid-late next week: outside chance for some good waves as a ridge builds across the coast (see notes below).

Recap: Nuthin’ but northerlies for these past few days. Some local windswell in the mix but very ordinary conditions overall.

This weekend (Nov 22-23)

Let’s divide the region into two for the weekend. South of Coffs Harbour, and north Coffs Harbour.

To the north: there’s nothing but northerly pain expected this weekend. We’ll continue to see a peaky mix of low period north-east and east swells but local winds will really make things difficult.

But to the south: we’ve had an improvement from Wednesday’s notes, with the aforementioned southerly change now expected to nose a little further north along the coast.

It’s due into Seal Rocks just after midnight tonight, Port Mac just before dawn and Coffs Harbour shortly after dawn (although, winds will be strongest in the south with not much strength on the Banana Coast).

In fact winds should actually tend more SW in direction across the coastal strip early morning, which is even better for Saturday's surf prospects.

This should provide clean conditions across southern corners that should be picking up the short range NE swell quite well (being further downstream, it’ll coincidentally see the most size with 3-4ft sets at swell magnets early on, ahead of an easing trend during the day).

As for Sunday, we’ll be back to the freshening northerly regime just about everywhere with poor surfing opportunities at all but the most protected northern corners. There won’t be any south swell behind Saturday’s (weak) change either so the dominant swell train will be NE windswell.

Next week (Nov 24 onwards)

A continuation of this troughypattern on Monday will maintain gusty northerly winds about most coasts and limited surfing opportunities.

On Tuesday, a reasonably punchy front will push along the Southern NSW coast, but it’s expected to stall somewhere along the Northern NSW Coast in the evening.

Obviously, the position of this stall is crucial to regional surf prospects, because locations to the north will remain under a brisk northerly flow - possibly until the weekend (hello SE Qld!) if we're really unlucky - but locations to the south will see freshening SE winds as a ridge builds across the central coastal region. 

And a convergence zone between these regions could see light winds, or at least something funky and model-defying (which is probably where the best surf will occur mid-week). I’m currently tipping this to be around Coffs Harbour on Wednesday, with a slow movement northwards towards the Gold Coast by Thursday or maybe Friday.

So mid-week surf prospects will consist of small NE windswell across most regions, with a small southerly swell for Northern NSW’s south facing beaches on Wednesday and Thursday (thanks to the parent low related to late Tuesday's southerly change). 

Later in the week, we’re looking at a potentially reasonable short range SE swell off the strengthening coastal ridge.  If you really want me to go out on a limb, I reckon there’s a chance for a window of opportunity around Thursday or Friday just north of the ridge - where winds will be light, or possibly even offshore - but where we’ll also see a building short range SE swell ahead pushing ahead of the surface wind change itself. This will only occur if the ridge advances very slowly forwards (which is not common), allowing the swell to outrun the fetch that's generating it. But hey: we all need something to cling on to in these desperate times. So let’s see how the model data is stacking up on Monday.

Comments

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Friday, 21 Nov 2014 at 6:47pm

Hmmmm.......

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 21 Nov 2014 at 7:18pm

Talk to us Sheepy. What are you thinking ?

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Friday, 21 Nov 2014 at 7:28pm

Das surf ist einer shizenhouzen....... lol

That "parent low"..... Wed/thurs...... some models have nice fetch on western flank near tassie.... Throw in a bit of refraction, a dash of coriolis, and south of coffs might have a small but long period swell come fri/sat next week.. I know a couple of Mick free's nz spot would be nice, but that's another story....
Apart from that, next weekend looks like trade swell for se qld, but points only... Trade winds to accompany trade swell.....

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 22 Nov 2014 at 1:18pm

T'was mentioned in the southern NSW notes (and it's not from the parent low, but a follow up low in the same frontal stream later in the week). However there's a more significant local system on the cards likely to influence surf prospects during this time, which is why I didn't bother mentioning it.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Sunday, 23 Nov 2014 at 3:34pm

We'll agree to disagree on this one.... Firstly, It's the same low.....
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain&region=swp&noofdays=7

One can see the low ssw of Tassie on Monday, and all that troughy muck over Vicco and NSW joins the low and sweeps out to sea tuesday... The low intensifies and parks under NZ..... The fetch between that low and the high west of Tasmania is quite impressive, and I believe will be the better swell producing system than the so called "more significant local system on the cards".... And the reason I wrote about it here and not in south nsw forecasts is because I believe it will produce waves in North nsw and possibly qld, which is the area I most rant about.... cheers....

ps - if this chart is correct, the south swell may be quite good, and may even reach North of Coffs..... Friday/sat arrival...... Newcastle - coffs - 5 foot at 10 seconds.........Yamba/Byron - 3 to 4 foot at 10 to 11 seconds...... Totally dependent on the stalling of the low under NZ...

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon Sunday, 23 Nov 2014 at 5:52pm

Hey there Sheepio,
Are you referring to the 27th....? Synoptic chart...?
Long way away but real strong angled SE fetch which could sneak up past lower NZ...?
Am I looking at something off tangent..? haha

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Sunday, 23 Nov 2014 at 7:23pm

not just there, welly, also around the 50s 150e region - also south of 50/150 and extending north to the se Tassie coast.... From that region all the way to the se fetch you talk about.... Closer to Tassie, the sse swell should refract slightly....... The 0700 thru to 1900thurs looks ok..... The 1300 map looks amazing......A lefthander in New Cal will fire up if this low behaves like metvuw reckons it will....

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 21 Nov 2014 at 7:31pm

If only there was any good waves south of Coffs , Sheepy.
How's Tassie treating you cobber ? Weather getting a bit milder ?

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Friday, 21 Nov 2014 at 7:35pm

Good, mate..... Apart from having to clean out a garage full of crap.... Dump run sunday.... Garage sale coming up.... Great.... :/
It's steak and mushroom time.... Then tv, then bed.... Early rise.... Cheers, man....

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 21 Nov 2014 at 7:38pm

You moving ?

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 22 Nov 2014 at 2:34pm

Just a spring clean at this stage.... Cash in over Tassie holiday season, then yeah, maybe move, sell up..... Dunno if I can handle another far south Tasmania winter........ As the blind man says, "we'll see".......

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 22 Nov 2014 at 1:19pm

Looking bloody tasty in Port Mac this morning, as expected (photo from our surf report), almost Currumbin-esque!

wingnut2443's picture
wingnut2443's picture
wingnut2443 Monday, 24 Nov 2014 at 8:37am

That wave in Port is a fat mush bugger - they didn't run the aussie titles there for a reason!

Don't wast ya time driving in there. As you head North or South on the Pacific dog track, keep driving ... don't waste the fuel (think of the environment) or the time (get more waves elsewhere) ... plenty of better options.

mk1's picture
mk1's picture
mk1 Sunday, 23 Nov 2014 at 3:23pm

That Port pic looks like heaven right now.

I tried surfing tweed coast today, and then I thought, why? Why not just take a dull knife and start cutting myself instead? Maybe then the anxiety will stop for a few hours.

Springtime.

wingnut2443's picture
wingnut2443's picture
wingnut2443 Monday, 24 Nov 2014 at 8:44am

"I tried surfing tweed coast today, and then I thought, why? Why not just take a dull knife and start cutting myself instead? Maybe then the anxiety will stop for a few hours."

Ah ... YEP. Northern windswell mush ...

At 9.00am at one back beach I counted 60 "surfers", including 4 in colored comp rashies from the mal club ...

Surfing it was not ...

By 12.00pm the lunchtime shift change had come into full force and about 10 of us had a few fun waves - Albeit I needed the mini mal to cope ;)

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Sunday, 23 Nov 2014 at 7:27pm

Mk1, a full day of clothes shopping with the wife should fix you up.... Even mowing the lawn looks great after that..... ;)

mk1's picture
mk1's picture
mk1 Sunday, 23 Nov 2014 at 9:45pm

agggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

wingnut2443's picture
wingnut2443's picture
wingnut2443 Monday, 24 Nov 2014 at 8:31am

mmm, OK I'm confused ...

When did Port Macq become part of "Northern NSW"?

For some reason, maybe my stupid assumption, I thought the "South East Qld and Northern NSW" forecasts were for say the Sunny Coast to Byron / Lennox ... ???

Did I make am ass out of u and me? ... (i.e. ass u me incorrectly)

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Monday, 24 Nov 2014 at 9:45am

yeah, I'm a bit confused, too..... But geographically speaking, one must decide on how many "regions" there are in NSW... Let's hypothetically go with 3 regions..... North, central, and south....... Considering Victoria has only one forecast for it's whole coast, from the sw facing Portland back beach to the east facing Wilsons prom, I think 3 regions for NSW is suffice....
Newcastle is basically the dead centre of the NSW coast, therefore dead centre of the "central coast"... Equally breaking up the coast would have Wollongong to Port Mac' as the central Coast.... Kiama to Eden would be the south coast, and Crescent Head to Tweed would be the North coast....
Of course parochialism, habit, bias and bullshit would hinder this theory, but geographically speaking in regards to 3 regions, that's what the map says.... Then of course there's the vegetation and climate, which does start to change north of Port Mac....