Southeast Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 9th June)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: small windy waves at the exposed Qld points if you're keen. Thurs: fun SE thru' S/SE swell in Northern NSW with good winds early (only small in SE Qld). Fri: powerful SE groundswell developing after lunch, with generally light winds. Sat: easing SE groundswell with freshening W'ly winds. Sun: solid S'ly swell building across Northern NSW. 

Recap: Bit of a fizzer over the weekend in the surf department, even though it wasn’t really worth getting excited about anyway. The long range E’ly trade swell that originated east of NZ longitudes failed to deliver much more than couple of inconsistent feet at exposed beaches, and the other short range sources of swell fell short of expectations too. However with gusty S/SW thru’ SW winds on offer there wasn’t much to work around. 

A new S’ly swell has started to build across the region today, but it’s not showing up everywhere (as a guide, Newcastle reached 4-6ft this morning, and exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW should reach a peak this afternoon). Our surfcam at The Pass has shown plenty of lines in the chest/shoulder high range today (not bad for a swell with some south in its direction) however very little size is getting into SE Qld beaches due to the swell direction.

This week (June 10-13)

First things first - if you take a look at the synoptic chart, you’ll see a developing trough in the Coral Sea over the coming 24 hours. This is quite an unseasonable weather system, and unfortunately it won’t directly produce any swell for the SE Qld coast. It will however indirectly generate some short range energy, by way of a strengthening ridge across much of the East Coast. 

This strengthening ridge will also affect much of the NSW coast on Tuesday too, so we’re looking at a windy combination of easing southerly groundswell (from today) and rebuilding short range SE swell that’ll hold through Wednesday. Winds will be fresh SE for much of Tuesday (possibly S/SW in a few localised areas early morning), and they’ll slowly ease into Wednesday and tend more S’ly.

Exposed points in SE Qld should have some small runners during this time frame but it’s hard to imagine there being many suitable options in Northern NSW over the next few days - especially with a great forecast period ahead.

A complex, deep trough currently lies off the west coast of New Zealand, and it's expected to be an active source of swell for the entire East Coast for the rest of the forecast period. Right now a small S/SE fetch off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island is strengthening around a small centre of low pressure that's modeled to pinch off from the trough into Tuesday, tracking north-west into the central Tasman Sea. The computer models have slightly upgraded the strength of this fetch since Friday, but our wave model isn’t resolving it very well - so I’m going to call above the size currently listed on the graph (which is about 3ft). 

The tricky part about this anticipated swell is the timing - it’s forecast to arrive during Wednesday afternoon in southern NSW, and will probably reach the Northern NSW coast overnight Wednesday before peaking early Thursday and then trending down through during the day. The swell direction is expected to be somewhere between SE and S/SE, which unfortunately means SE Qld will see much smaller waves than Northern NSW. 

However the good news is that the mid-week ridge across the coast will have relaxed considerably by this time, so Thursday morning should dawn reasonably clean with moderate SW winds across most regions, and with open south facing locations in Northern NSW peaking somewhere between 3ft and 5ft, there should be some great waves about the reefs and exposed points. North of the border, the surf will be considerably smaller form this source (inconsistent 2ft at most SE Qld beaches, reaching 3ft+ at exposed south swell magnets) but conditions should be nice for the early surf. Expect freshening southerly winds during the day (probably not with any great deal of strength, though).

Friday is shaping up to deliver some really good waves. A weak ridge of high pressure across the region should maintain light and variable winds for much of the day (possibly an afternoon N’ly tendency), and a solid new SE groundswell is expected to arrive after lunch, building towards an overnight peak in size. This swell will have originated from a secondary low forming within the trough off NZ’s West Coast later Tuesday and Wednesday, which is expected to exhibit a sustained fetch of 40kt+ E’ly winds west of Cook Strait.

By the end of the day, set waves should approach the 5-6ft+ range at exposed beaches and reefs in Northern NSW - with the upper end of this size range more likely along the Mid North Coast, where the fetch will be best aimed. This swell isn’t looking quite as good for SE Qld, so we’re on target for late 2-3ft waves on the points that may reach 3-4ft+ at exposed south facing beaches. It's worth nothing that this swell is expected to be quite powerful with a healthy wavelength/swell period. Prior to its arrival, expect residual SE swell leftover from Thursday with early light winds.

The only points of concern I have for Friday afternoon's new swell is (1) the overnight peak in size, and (2) the afternoon N’ly tendency in the wind (which will crop up as the swell reaches its peak). However let’s take a look at the available data on Wednesday to see if these concerns are still warranted.

This weekend (June 14/15)

Friday’s late strong SE swell should persist into Saturday morning with set waves between 4ft and possibly 6ft at exposed beaches first light in Northern NSW (but only half this size in SE Qld), however it’ll quickly trend downwards throughout the day. Fresh westerly winds will envelop much of the coast as a front crosses the region. 

Sunday’s on target for a possible solid short range south swell in Northern NSW, courtesy of a deep low that’s modelled to develop off the southern NSW coast early Saturday. This event could become quite sizeable at the swell magnets but we’ll have to wait and see how the model data pans out over the coming days. The good news is that right now, most weather models in general agreement about the location, timing and strength of the low, so there’s a pretty good chance it’ll happen. Unfortunately, SE Qld rarely picks up anything worthwhile from these systems so after Saturday we could be looking at another spell of small surf. 

Long term (June 16 onwards)

The weekend’s impending low pressure system looks like being a fairly typical winter Tasman Low, which - if it follows the climatological script - means we’ll see a peak throughout Sunday and then a steady trend downwards from Monday onwards. Otherwise, there are no other solid sources of swell for the longer term period - the long range charts have a deep low sitting NE of New Zealand over the weekend (that could generate a small long period E’ly swell for the middle to latter part of next week) however this is a long time away and the system is forecast to be in a position that’s right on the periphery of our swell window. Let’s take a closer look at this low in Wednesday’s notes.