South Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 21st November)

Best Days: South Coast Saturday morning

Recap

Poor conditions across both coasts yesterday with onshore winds and small to tiny surf, improving later on the Mid Coast as winds tended more variable and the swell kicked to 1-1.5ft.

This morning the swell was hanging in at 1-1.5ft on the Mid but with poor and strengthening N'ly winds, clean, small and fun down South early though a strong W/NW change is now moving through. This will kick up a stormy increase in swell on the Mid this afternoon, explained below.

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This week and weekend (Nov 22 - 25)

The strong W/NW change that's moving through the region is associated with a strong and deepening mid-latitude low approaching from the west and this system has been upgraded since Monday.

We're now expected to see gale-force W/SW winds projected across Kangaroo Island and into the gulf this afternoon and evening.

We'll see a sizey stormy swell develop later across the Mid Coast to 3ft+.

The low will continue east across us through this evening with strong but abating SW winds left in its wake tomorrow morning along with stormy easing surf from 3ft+ on the Mid Coast and easing 4-5ft+ waves down South.

Friday will remain onshore as the windswells continue to ease as the low stalls off the Tassie East Coast, directing S/SW-SW breezes into both coasts.

We're still expected to see winds tend around to the E/NE on Saturday as another deep mid-latitude low forming across inland WA starts drifting east-southeast.

We should see a little more size than expected in Monday's notes, with a persistent fetch of S/SE winds west of Tasmania due to produce small levels of S/SE swell.

Most breaks should be a similar size and around 3ft on the sets, and peaky with that E/NE breeze. The Mid Coast will become tiny to flat with the swell being totally blocked by Kangaroo Island.

We'll see winds deteriorate into the afternoon and Sunday again though as the mid-latitude continues east, bringing SE tending S winds.

As the low continues east, winds will swing back offshore Monday but the surf will be small to tiny.

Longer term another strengthening mid-latitude low is expected to bring onshore winds and building swells mid-next week, but we'll have another look at this Friday.