Indonesia/Maldives forecast Oct 1

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 1st October)

This week through next (Oct 2 - 11)

Inconsistent levels of fun sized SW groundswell are currently in the water, though a slow decline in size is being seen today, with it due to drop further into tomorrow morning.

Later in the day but more so Thursday, a secondary pulse of slightly stronger but still inconsistent, long-range SW groundswell is due and this should provide decent sized sets when they come.

This energy is due to ease into Friday morning ahead of our large S/SW groundswell later in the day but more so Saturday.

Now, looking at the evolution of the swell generating storm, and the main change from last week is that it’s forming a little further east, isn’t as strong and also doesn’t quite project as far north.

In saying this we’re still expected to see strong to gale-force S/SW winds projected north-eastwards towards Indonesia producing a large mid-period S/SW swell, while embedded severe-gale to storm-force S/SW winds will generate some larger, stronger S’ly groundswell energy.

The mid-period stuff is due to arrive later Friday ahead of the more S’ly groundswell for Saturday.

Owing to the south angle expect smaller waves far east, while Western Indonesia will also miss out on a bit of size and a later arrival of the S’ly energy late Saturday, easing Sunday morning.

Longer term, smaller levels of background mid-period S/SW swell and SW groundswell are due to pad out next week, with the best being in the water Tuesday/Wednesday.

More on this Thursday.

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Maldives: A mix of S’ly groundswell and S/SE trade-swell are peaking across the region, with both due to ease a little into tomorrow.

We should see further pulses of moderate sized S/SE trade-swell through the coming days owing to an intensification of strong SE winds south of us.

This should kick the swell back up through Wednesday, with a secondary stronger kick on Thursday/Friday, easing slowly into the weekend (more so from Sunday) as the swell generating fetch evaporates from Friday.

The low forming off Western Australia looks a little less favourable for swell production across our regions, but in saying that we should see radial spread bringing some small to moderate sized, inconsistent S/SE groundswell energy for later next Monday but more so Tuesday.

Otherwise, a large S’ly groundswell is likely later next week from a strong polar low firing up under South Afria later this week. More on this Thursday.

Eastern Indonesia:

Moderate + sized, inconsistent SW groundswell arriving tomorrow afternoon, building towards 6ft across exposed breaks later, holding a similar size Thursday.

Large mix of mid-period S/SW swell building later Friday, with a S'ly groundswell in the mix for Saturday with sets to 8ft+ across exposed breaks (possibly 10ft cleanups).

Easing swell into Sunday, with some inconsistent background SW groundswell and mid-period energy Tuesday/Wednesday to 4-5ft+.

Weak E/SE-SE trades, variable offshore winds each morning.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Moderate + sized inconsistent S/SW groundswell building later today, peaking tomorrow to 6ft across exposed breaks, easing slowly Thursday.

Mod-large sized S/SW swell for later Friday, peaking Saturday to 6ft to occ 8ft across exposed breaks, with a reinforcing S'ly groundswell Sunday morning to a similar size.

Small-mod sized, inconsistent SW groundswell for Tuesday afternoon/Wednesday morning to 4-5ft.

Variable winds.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Easing S'ly groundswell tomorrow and S/SE-SE trade-swell.

Building S/SE trade-swell through Thursday, strongest Friday and to 4-5ft (smaller Male), easing slowly from Sunday. 

Small-moderate sized, inconsistent S/SE groundswell for later Monday/Tuesday to 3-4ft.

Moderate W/SW-SW winds tomorrow, lighter Thursday, increasing a liitle from Friday into the weekend.

Comments

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Tuesday, 1 Oct 2024 at 3:06pm

Thanks Craig, I'll take the 4-5' swells Tuesday /Wednesday, I'm assuming it'll be more like ~3' where we are up north.
The models have been consistently suggesting more swell late next week (more so, 11th-13), is it still too far out to make comment on that?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 1 Oct 2024 at 3:07pm

Yep, looks like some fun swells on the cards later.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Tuesday, 1 Oct 2024 at 3:16pm

Thanks Craig & as usual, appreciate you taking the time to provide extra comment.
Thursday's notes will help me decide which boards I'm taking.
We're flying out on Sunday, in the water around Banyaks as of Tuesday the 8th, with our last day in the water being the 17th.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 1 Oct 2024 at 6:38pm

Which boat you on Frodge?

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Tuesday, 1 Oct 2024 at 6:59pm

We were on the Dream, but I believe she ran aground end of August. They have since chartered Naga Laut for the remainder of the season - we'll have the Dream's surf guide, Chris on board.
Have you been there before Don?
I've been to the Maldives multiple times and Bali, but never Western Indo - looking forward to it.

Seabiscuit's picture
Seabiscuit's picture
Seabiscuit Wednesday, 2 Oct 2024 at 8:50am

Let us know how you go up there Frodge! Is The Dream still on the reef?

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Wednesday, 2 Oct 2024 at 11:00am

Will do Seabiscuit.
Re. The Dream - not sure - I think I was told she's back sailing next season - not sure if that means she in for repairs already?
I did see a picture of her sitting on the reef (after the incident) - hopefully all on board were okay when it happened.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 2 Oct 2024 at 1:58pm

Yes been to the banyaks twice on the Pulse.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Wednesday, 2 Oct 2024 at 2:39pm

The Pulse looks like a very nice boat to go on.
Don - you always seemed to be switched on to the forecasts - how do you think the models are currently looking for the 8-17th?

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 2 Oct 2024 at 4:06pm

Just a very quick look and it looks like you've got some fun swells coming for your first week, peaking around Thursday/Friday 10th/11th, albeit with multiple swells in the water around this time (so some model outputs are double counting swells). Surprisingly EC is being a little more bullish on these fetches compared to GFS so you may find a slight upgrade in the swell forecasts in the coming days.

Just my two cents worth however on the Banyaks premiere wave. It does not like swell periods in excess of 15-16 seconds and doesn't like SW swell directions. It comes alive when the swell is more south and swell periods wane down into that 13-15 sec band. For the conditions above (long swell periods and swells more Wly in direction) there are other options in the Banyaks for these swells.

Hopefully there's not too many boats running up there when you're there as there are certainly more land camps in the area now than when I went.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Wednesday, 2 Oct 2024 at 5:09pm

Thanks for the comments Don - much appreciated.
Re. that premiere wave - based on the models you are looking at, any chance i'll get it head high or bigger?
Looks like a lot of fun set ups to chase.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 2 Oct 2024 at 5:49pm

It’ can get sizey in those long period swells. Just doesn’t line up due to the offshore bathymetry creating wedges rather than lines of swell.

The point of my comment above was for you to understand don’t necessarily look to surf it at its biggest swell/period. Aim to surf it when the swell period is lower (which usually aligns with the waning swell/period).

Of course you then require local winds to play ball also.

Trying to upload an image below but it won't upload!!! :(

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Wednesday, 2 Oct 2024 at 9:21pm

Cheers again for the advice Don.
Also nice photo.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 2 Oct 2024 at 9:36pm

The upload worked. Wasn’t working on my laptop but shows up on my phone.

That pic shows it when the swell period is too high. See the wedge breaking away from the main wave. Super hard to catch and even harder to ride.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Tuesday, 1 Oct 2024 at 3:28pm

Cheers Craig , currently leaving Rote and working back west . Rote was well overhead again yesterday and this morning on the sets , direction wasn’t the best however. The Saturday forecast has my anxiety levels rising as the next spot we are going to can be pretty intimidating with size .

bdp's picture
bdp's picture
bdp Tuesday, 1 Oct 2024 at 5:47pm

Hey Mr Freak, I'm going to Rote for my first visit arrive Monday. Not sure if my 6'5" and 6'8" are the correct boards now.. Are there boards available to rent near t-land if I need something larger?

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Tuesday, 1 Oct 2024 at 6:13pm

@bdp , your boards will be fine for some of the waves however T-Land at size , I found difficult to paddle into, many old guys riding 8’6 to 9’6 boards simply for the paddle power . It’s not a hollow wave as in top to bottom barrel and has a long sloping face with occasionally an high armond shaped tube . I saw a few younger guys having a go-and ripping but they weren’t catching the sets . Plenty of big boards at Danny’s surf shop , local guy from kupang and another shop on main road that both sells and hires boards . Good luck mate, lovely place .

bdp's picture
bdp's picture
bdp Wednesday, 2 Oct 2024 at 4:46pm

Thanks Supafreak, Thats really handy intel. Yep, I'm not in the younger guy age group anymore so I might have to hit up Dannys for the bigger days. I'm looking forward to it. First OS surf trip since 2019 but not keen to lug more than two boards around on the multi day transit just to get there.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 2 Oct 2024 at 4:57pm

&bdp , I’m sure you’re aware it’s school holidays up until 11th October I think , Rote is a very popular family holiday destination . The other day a father was trying , without much success to push his son & daughter into waves . He hadn’t seen the size of the sets which while being infrequent were easy double + overhead , I took a bomb and couldn’t see from the offshore blowing in my face but out of the corner of my eye noticed them duck diving just next to me , next thing I hit a bit of chop at the base and went over the handle bars and got flogged . The dad was screaming at his kids to paddle for the boat . They looked about 11 or 12 years old .

soggydog's picture
soggydog's picture
soggydog Tuesday, 1 Oct 2024 at 4:05pm

Good luck Supa, had a few good ones at the right this morning early. Was a pleasure to meat you and have a few laughs.
We’ll see you next time. Yew!

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Tuesday, 1 Oct 2024 at 6:17pm

Yeah heard it was good with about 20+ crew on it , Nick ( kneeboarder ) said he had a ball . Great to meet you also SD and remember to drop by if you visit the rock . Forecast is looking pretty dam good , you know where we are heading, might see you there one day .

soggydog's picture
soggydog's picture
soggydog Wednesday, 2 Oct 2024 at 12:07pm

It’s definitely on the ‘To do ‘list. Surfed with Nick the kneelo today.

andy-mac's picture
andy-mac's picture
andy-mac Tuesday, 1 Oct 2024 at 4:20pm

Surfed Ulu this morning... 3-4 ft with a wobble, but fun. Crowd not too heavy.
Geez it's changed out that way in the last couple of years!

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 2 Oct 2024 at 2:11pm

Nam air has now increased board bag prices from 300,000 rp for sporting goods in august to 700,000 rp , you get 20 kg free with ticket but sports goods are charged completely separately and it’s different price for kilograms range . Not cheap flying around indo with surfboards these days . Nam more than doubled price in a month, probably watching wings and lion cleaning up .