Indonesia/Maldives forecast February 12

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Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 13th February)

This week through next (Feb 14 - 23)

The surf bottomed out into the weekend, but some small, background energy should be offering surf on the magnets today and tomorrow.

Our small pulse of average S’ly swell for Thursday now looks weaker, with a burst of S/SE winds off the Western Australian coast not expected to provide much size.

A slightly better but inconsistent pulse of mid-period S’ly swell is due Saturday, generated by a broad and healthy but late forming (in Indonesia’s swell window) polar frontal system.

Sets to a good 4ft should be seen across the south magnets in eastern Indonesia, smaller to the east of Bali and the Ments, easing Sunday.

Following this, a smaller, inconsistent S/SW groundswell signal is due into late Sunday but more so Monday, though the source is dicier than Saturday’s. A strong but poorly aligned and short-lived polar low has generated this swell from the Heard Island region though it’s not due to provide much size so lower your expectations.

Otherwise the rest of next week looks slow with fading surf back to the small to tiny range. There’s a chance for some better swell the following weekend, but more on this Thursday.

Looking across to the Maldives and there’s not much to work with this period with NE windswell from strong monsoon winds being most dominant.

A developing tropical depression east of Madagascar looks to form too far west and be overly weak to generate any S’ly swell for next week but we’ll keep an eye on this.

Otherwise a strong low pushing north into the Indian Ocean early next week might generate some fun S’ly swell late next week. More on this Thursday.

Eastern Indonesia:

Small, inconsistent, background mid-period SW swell for today and tomorrow to 3ft+ on the magnets.

Weak, mid-period S swell for later Thursday and Friday morning to 3ft from Bali, west.

Small-moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell for Saturday to 4ft, easing Sunday.

Small, inconsistent long-period S/SW groundswell arriving late Sunday but more so Monday to 3-4ft on the magnets.

Smaller surf for the rest of the week, with a possible better groundswell for the following weekend.

Variable offshore winds with weak W/SW-SW breezes into the afternoons.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Small, inconsistent background S/SW swell for today and tomorrow to 3ft on the magnets.

Weak, small mid-period S/SE swell Friday to 3ft across the south magnets.

Small, mid-period S swell for Saturday to 3ft.

Small, inconsistent long-period S/SW groundswell arriving late Sunday but more so Monday to 3ft on the magnets.

Possible better groundswell for the following weekend.

S/SE winds tomorrow, more variable from Thursday, freshening again from the S/SE next Tuesday/Wednesday next week. 

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs


Weak NE windswell for the period to 3ft+.

Persistent, strong NE winds, tending more E/NE later this week.


Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 13 Feb 2024 at 3:43pm

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