Indonesia/Maldives forecast December 7

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 7th November)

This week through next week (Dec 8 - 15)

Our new SW groundswell filled in nicely through Tuesday, with yesterday morning still providing good sets with clean conditions, easing slightly today.

The easing trend will continue to be slow thanks to reinforcing pulses of mid-period S/SW swell filling in later tomorrow, easing Saturday and then further Sunday.

Later in the day Sunday, our inconsistent new SW groundswell should start to show, but a peak is still expected on Monday. This swell was generated in our far swell window by a strong polar low to the south-east of South Africa.

It'll be very inconsistent and moderate in size, with the models overcooking the forecast a little and mixing easing mid-period energy with the new groundswell.

Following this, the surf is due to ease through the rest of the week, slowed only by the arrival of a small-moderate sized, mid-period SW swell Thursday afternoon, holding Friday.

The source will be a relatively weak and short-lived burst of strong to near gale-force W/SW winds in our swell window, to the south-east of South Africa today and tomorrow. Following this there's nothing major at all on the cards, so make the most of the current swells.

The Maldives are in an active pattern of S'ly swells thanks to the sources forming south and south-east of South Africa.

An early week S'ly groundswell should have been followed up by a reinforcing pulse Tuesday afternoon, easing through yesterday.

The next pulse of groundswell, generated by the polar low is due to arrive later Friday and peak Saturday, likely through the middle of the day/afternoon.

Following this, the weaker trailing front firing up today should produce another fun pulse of slightly stronger sized S'ly swell early next week.

Trade-swell wise, there's still nothing to really work with.

Eastern Indonesia:

Reinforcing moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell this morning to 4-6ft, easing tomorrow.

Smaller reinforcing S/SW swell Friday afternoon and Saturday morning to 4ft+.

Inconsistent SW groundswell later Sunday, peaking Monday to 4-5ft+. Smaller, reinforcing mid-period SW swell later Thursday and Friday to the 4ft+ range.

Light, variable winds most of the period, tending SW from tomorrow through the weekend and next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Easing SW groundswell today, with a small, reinforcing mid-period S'ly swell for tomorrow to 3-4ft.

Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building late Sunday to 4-5ft+, easing from a similar size Monday.

Small-moderate sized reinforcing SW swell for Thursday to 4-5ft, easing later week.

Light, variable winds, tending S/SE-SE into the afternoons across southern locations this weekend, variable early next week before freshening later week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs


Moderate sized pulse of S'ly groundswell for late tomorrow, peaking Saturday during the day to 4ft across the southern atolls, easing Sunday. Slightly smaller Male.

Moderate sized + pulse of mid-period S'ly swell building later Monday but more so Tuesday, peaking Wednesday to 4-5ft across the southern atolls. Slightly smaller Male.

Small, weak levels of SE windswell for the period.

Strong S/SW winds tomorrow (lighter to the south), easing and tending W/SW-SW on Saturday (variable to to the south). Variable winds Sunday/Monday.

Freshening W/NW-NW winds next Tuesday, persisting Wednesday and Thursday (lighter to the south). Winds tending south late week.


Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 4:57pm

Latest notes are live.

hazcam's picture
hazcam's picture
hazcam Sunday, 10 Dec 2023 at 8:00am

been a good week pumped wed-fri morn sharp decline yesty winds played ball pretty all morning