Moderate pulses from this weekend with some tricky winds next weekend

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Hawaii North Shore forecast by Steve Shearer (issued on Fri Jan 28)

This week and next (Jan28 – Feb4)

Hawaii:  Smaller swells (compared to Jan averages) from the W/NW to NW into next week with problematic winds next weekend

Surf in the 5-6ft range is now on an easing trend with the smallest day for a month on track for Fri.

Saturday sees a moderate pulse ion the 6ft range for opening day Pipe with mod E/SE trades supplying excellent surface conditions.

This pulse eases back Sun with plenty of leftover OH head surf in the morning and light E/SE trades, tending more SE through the day, offering up good Backdoor winds.

A compact storm with storm force winds forms around 2000 nm from Hawaii Fri, tracking briefly NW before being shunted N’wards. Swell from this source should see surf fill in  in the 6ft range later Tues, with moderate E’ly trades. Swell peaks Wed morning from this source, veering more NW with some 6-8ft sets and E’ly winds.

Into the end of next week and models are now showing broad agreement on a complex area of low pressure centred East of Kamchatka Peninsula (see below).

Complex low centred near Kamchatka generates wide band of gales

The first phase of the storm pushes a large area of gales to severe gales out of the Kuril Island, tracking towards Hawaii for 36-48 hrs before weakening and moving N. That should see a pulse of 6-8ft swell from the W/NW build in Fri with 8ft sets in the a’noon.

Winds are a problem as a mid-latitude low to the North of the Islands drags a kona S’ly to SW’ly flow over the Island chain.

This Kona flow looks set to continue over the weekend.

Secondary phases of the storm, push W to NW gales towards Hawaii Thurs/Fri suggesting more moderate W/NW swell pulses early week beginning 7/2.

Trades may take a while to re-establish once the Kona low moves away and a band of high pressure moves past the Islands.

Stay tuned for updates.


southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Monday, 6 Nov 2023 at 1:22am

So ummm....about El Nino.
Traditionally November see's a multitude of at least large stormy surf.
So far this year it's been playful, fun, hot(apart from one freak swell in late October....but just one).
Is this to be countered into a what could be considered a building combustion of atmospheric conditions ready to explode in the mid N Pacifiic or is this ElNino somehow so far defying logic and producing a dud series of weather events and a low surf season in the Islands?
(btw I'm a believer, just interested on the take of the pros)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 6 Nov 2023 at 8:35am

Still way early in the season. Looks to be most active post Christmas holiday season.

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Monday, 6 Nov 2023 at 3:43pm

Ahh ok cheers Craig.
Hopefully it's a cracker.

nicko74's picture
nicko74's picture
nicko74 Saturday, 6 Jan 2024 at 7:25pm

Curious if forecast notes for January 2024 will be posted?


dazzler's picture
dazzler's picture
dazzler Friday, 16 Feb 2024 at 7:26pm

Anyone else being directed to North Shore surf forecast?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 16 Feb 2024 at 8:13pm

Would be because you were checking out the event page. Goes from the last spot last checked.