Hawaii North Shore forecast by Steve Shearer (issued on Fri Jan 28)

This week and next (Jan28 – Feb4)

Hawaii:  Smaller swells (compared to Jan averages) from the W/NW to NW into next week with problematic winds next weekend

Surf in the 5-6ft range is now on an easing trend with the smallest day for a month on track for Fri.

Saturday sees a moderate pulse ion the 6ft range for opening day Pipe with mod E/SE trades supplying excellent surface conditions.

This pulse eases back Sun with plenty of leftover OH head surf in the morning and light E/SE trades, tending more SE through the day, offering up good Backdoor winds.

A compact storm with storm force winds forms around 2000 nm from Hawaii Fri, tracking briefly NW before being shunted N’wards. Swell from this source should see surf fill in  in the 6ft range later Tues, with moderate E’ly trades. Swell peaks Wed morning from this source, veering more NW with some 6-8ft sets and E’ly winds.

Into the end of next week and models are now showing broad agreement on a complex area of low pressure centred East of Kamchatka Peninsula (see below).

Complex low centred near Kamchatka generates wide band of gales

The first phase of the storm pushes a large area of gales to severe gales out of the Kuril Island, tracking towards Hawaii for 36-48 hrs before weakening and moving N. That should see a pulse of 6-8ft swell from the W/NW build in Fri with 8ft sets in the a’noon.

Winds are a problem as a mid-latitude low to the North of the Islands drags a kona S’ly to SW’ly flow over the Island chain.

This Kona flow looks set to continue over the weekend.

Secondary phases of the storm, push W to NW gales towards Hawaii Thurs/Fri suggesting more moderate W/NW swell pulses early week beginning 7/2.

Trades may take a while to re-establish once the Kona low moves away and a band of high pressure moves past the Islands.

Stay tuned for updates.