Surf quietens down after an extremely active period with potential on the long range

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Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Hawaii North Shore forecast by Steve Shearer (issued on Wed Jan 26)

This week and next (Jan26 – Feb4)

Hawaii:  Smaller swells (compared to Jan averages) from the W/NW to NW into next week

Surf in the 6ft range with multiple pulses from the W/NW to NW rounding out a phenomenal run of swell. Trades in the moderate category Tues tend to E/NE winds Wed as a diminishing sub-tropical storm washes out south of the Islands. The flow veers more E/SE Thurs as a front approaches the Island. Thursday sees the last day of 6ft surf.

Size dips into Fri before a new pulse Sat , generated by an intense low pushing off Honshu today . The system broadens and deepens through Tues with extreme winds in excess of storm force, but gets shunted NE before the dateline. This track limits surf potential. Long period forerunners arrive Fri morning with the bulk of the swell arriving Sat with size in the 6ft range and occ 8ft sets. Moderate E/SE trades are expected.

Size dips into Sun with a Kona low W/NW of Hawaii seeing a S’ly tilt to winds, potentially at mod strength.

A compact storm with storm force winds forms around 2000 nm from Hawaii Fri, tracking briefly NW before being shunted N’wards. Swell from this source should see surf in the 3-5ft range Wed, with moderate E’ly trades.

Into next week and models are still offering mixed messages. EC model suggests a complex area of low pressure in the North Pacific with an initial fetch out of the Kuril Islands before a much more consolidated storm force fetch  feeds into a shear line front Mon/Tues Jan31-Feb1 This suggest a larger pulse later next week.

Storm pushing off Kuril Islands next week offers potential mid-size swell for Pipe

GFS still favours a much less organised fetch during the same period, with a more compact storm off Honshu around Feb4. This suggests more pulses of moderate W/NW swell into the end of next week.

Check back Fri for a fresh update.