Great week of mid-sized surf and favourable winds ahead

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Hawaii North Shore forecast by Steve Shearer (issued on Mon 27 Dec)

This week and next (Dec 27 – Jan7)

Hawaii: N/NE swells over-lapped by some stronger NW pulses this week with great winds, tending more Kona on the weekend.

Semi-stationary high pressure drifting in the Gulf Of Alaska is maintaining strong, upstream trades from Hawaii, with N/NE swell pulses transitioning too more classic NE tradewind swell. Headhigh surf transitions from this source down through Mon/Tues.

Several NW pulses are due this week, the first building Mon into the 4-5ft range, peaking Tues in the 6ft range before easing. E’ly to E/SE’ly trades suggest an excellent day of surfing at most North Shore small to medium wave spots.

Swell eases Wed before two more pulses of NW swell, generated by fronts pushing off the Kuril Islands, before being shunted up towards the Aleutian Islands. A smaller pulse Thurs is in the 3ft range. A bit more juice Fri with surf in the 3-4ft range. A weak Kona low sees winds tend more SE Fri, offering up excellent potential for more exposed Northern exposures.

Those S’ly quarter winds extend into the weekend with easing surf Sat from Fridays swell. Light Kona winds again offer up some excellent potential for more exposed spots normally blown out by the trades. 

Into next week and Kona winds may be a problem as low pressure NW of Hawaii drifts towards the state, possibly bringing a wind reversal from the normal trade direction with W’ly winds.

Fronts passing over Japan bring more W/NW pulses, the first front Sat/Sun pushes 20ft seas out to 160E, with a small pulse of W/NW swell mid next week.

A second, stronger front exits Hokkaido Mon, and pushes a captured fetch towards Hawaii through Tues/Wed, suggesting a stronger pulse of NW swell later next week.

Wind forecasts are up in the air until we can resolve the Kona low which has been hanging around Hawaii.

Looks like some really fun surf ahead this week. Check back Wed for a fresh update. 


thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 1:47pm

Nicely active though nothing overly sizeable. Kinda forecast I wouldn't mind dialing into over there TBH.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 2:35pm

Thats a take a board this time Forecast for sure Ben

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 6:58pm

Hey FR76, how'd you learn to forecast swells in this part of the world?
Time spent over there previously?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 7:08pm

I've spent a few seasons on the NS.

Same principles apply everywhere. I do have some local knowledge but it's mostly sustained observation and calibrating.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 28 Dec 2021 at 7:15pm

Cool, its a nice skill to have

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Wednesday, 29 Dec 2021 at 7:41am

This is now the 2nd year I havent been able to spend a month on the Nth Shore
with my family and im having servere withdrawals as my two boys are not so much
my wife and daughter because the weather can get pretty bad. Without doubt its
my favourite destination nothing can compare. Aloha and Mahalo for all the great
times and memories.