Craig

Slow period, larger from late next week

Hawaii North Shore, Micronesia and PNG forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued on Thursday 25th January)

Best Days: Hawaii - Tuesday, Wednesday morning, Thursday and Friday next week, Micronesia - Sunday through Thursday, PNG - protected spots over the coming period

This week and next (Jan 26 – Feb 2)

Hawaii: The pumping long-period swell seen earlier this week is easing and will continue to fade into the end of the week, with nothing really of not due through the coming fortnight. This is due to a pronounced upper level blocking pattern, with storms spawning off Japan being deflected to the north.

Make the most of today, because a weak W/NW windswell on Friday afternoon and Saturday will struggle to get above 3ft, while a N'ly groundswell for Tuesday from a low off Alaska looks to come in at 4-5ft across north magnets.

E/SE trades tomorrow will tend variable into Friday and the weekend, with SW Kona winds Tuesday and Wednesday with the new N'ly groundswell.

A small pulse of NW groundswell is expected later in the week from a broad but patchy fetch of NW winds being aimed towards us this weekend as the storm generating the fetch retreats back towards the Kamchatka Peninsula.

With this, only a small pulse to 4-5ft+ is expected on the North Shore Thursday, fading into Friday with variable winds. Also in the mix with this swell may be a close-range NW swell from a tight low forming north-west of us, but the models are still divergent around this.

Longer term the models have the blocking pattern breaking down, with fronts due to push right down into the Hawaiian Islands bringing lots of wind and swell, but more on this Tuesday.

North Shore Forecast Graph
North Shore WAMs

Micronesia: We've got some fun pulses of N/NW groundswell due over the coming weekend and early next week, generated by the storms spawning off Japan.

Two back to back and similar sized swells are due, but the first will be strongest, generated by the stronger fetch.

We should see building surf through Sunday, reaching 4-5ft later in the day, easing from 3-5ft Monday. The secondary pulse for Tuesday should build to a similar size later in the day and ease slowly Wednesday.

Gusty E/NE trades are expected over the coming period, favouring those protected reef passes exposed to the north swells. Longer term there's nothing major due besides trade-swell, but more on this Thursday.

Palikir Pass Forecast Graph
Palikir Pass WAMs

Papua New Guinea: Weak E/NE trades sitting between Micronesia and Hawaii are resulting in small levels of NE trade-swell across the region, below normal standards.

We're only expected to see small surf to 2ft+ for the most part, increasing a touch more towards 2-3ft through next week.

The N/NW groundswell will be inconsistent but should arrive around PNG Monday, building to 2ft to occasionally 3ft into the afternoon, holding a similar size Tuesday morning. The secondary pulse looks slightly better and more around 3ft Wednesday afternoon and Thursday.

Winds look dicey over the coming period and fresh from the W/NW, tending NW with a small tropical depression lingering in the region.Therefore exposed breaks will be mainly average.

Kavieng Forecast Graph
Kavieng WAMs

Comments

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Friday, 26 Jan 2018 at 5:33pm

Thursday more like 1- 2ft as I'm looking at it right now. Alas my last day
on my and my 2 boys favourite surfing destination of the surfing world.
Followed by Portugal. After almost 5 weeks we had mountain loads of
swell lots of quality uncrowded surf and crowded as well but not like
Sydney or the gold coast some good and bad weather not as perfect as
the last few years but what a relaxed peaceful island to be on still easily
my top destination and the ALOHA is well and truly alive, to me the nicest
locals to surf and chat with and I don't want to come home and will truly miss
Oahu Nth Shore. Mahalo
PS on my last wave of my trip shared a peak with Slater if only he new its
me the guy hates me. Ha Ha Kid you not the guy still rips as good as anybody
I watched surf. No better.

IF im not surfing im racing

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 26 Jan 2018 at 6:38pm

Haha what happened with Slater? Cook him once at the local?!

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Saturday, 27 Jan 2018 at 6:06pm

Heading over there in a week and the current forecast has seven days straight of 10ft+ swell spiced with a couple of 20ft+ days.

Think I might punch out a few laps of the local pool.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Saturday, 27 Jan 2018 at 6:49pm

Would you surf 20foot waves ?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Saturday, 27 Jan 2018 at 7:15pm

This time yesterday I would've said for sure.

Hell, this time fifteen years ago I would've meant it.

But right here, right now the simple answer is no.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Saturday, 27 Jan 2018 at 7:29pm

Holy shit Stu, good luck. You’ll be needing a few extra pairs of undies by the sounds of it. I was once faced with a similar type of forecast for a 6 day stay at Chopes. Scared the shit out of myself “training” by watching Black Water over and over again

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Saturday, 27 Jan 2018 at 8:07pm

Tomorrow is twenty years since the Condition Black swell - January 28th, 1998 - and I've been doing your sort of training, reading about pre-inflatable vest beat downs, with the same result - i.e scaring the shit out of myself.

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy commented Saturday, 27 Jan 2018 at 8:11pm

There should be more reasonable options around Stu. Not everywhere gets the full weight of the swell.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Saturday, 27 Jan 2018 at 8:29pm

Yeah, looks like there'll be kona winds in the mix and we've got wheels - horsepower not pedal power - so we'll head 'round the corner.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 27 Jan 2018 at 8:44pm

Good luck Stu

You taking a big stick?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Saturday, 27 Jan 2018 at 9:33pm

All my real big ones are old. I'm taking my 7'0" ten channel Free Flight which I'm mustard to ride at Sunset, and we're staying with Eric Arakawa who's understandably got the odd board lying around. A mate is there now and took some shots of the second hand guns in Eric's factory. Plenty to choose from if need be.

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy commented Saturday, 27 Jan 2018 at 10:37pm

There was a 7'10" Arakawa that he shaped for Margo Oberg that ended up in the possession of Ketut Pitur at Uluwatu. He lent it to me a few times for big Outside Corner and the for a week in G-Land. Incredible board! By far the best gun I ever surfed.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 27 Jan 2018 at 11:41pm

Fuck Stu that’s mental. Have a crack mate, wish I was joining you

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Sunday, 28 Jan 2018 at 7:37am

Stu it might sound gay but I purchased a Patagonia surf flotation vest
at my age and latest list of serious injuries I needed something for
confidence only wore it once at sunset and it was a godsend had a major
solid 10-12ft west peak break about 10ft in front of me (HEAVY) anyway got
obliterated but popped up so easily was amazing. A lot of surfers use them
highly recommended. Also theyre really comfortable and work.
The second hand boards are so overpriced for absolute rubbish you wouldn't
be able to justify paying the $$$ for them. My 7-3 is 24yrs old shaped by Darcy
and 7ft by Rabage is 13 yrs old and both went really well for my ability I couldn't imagine boards noticeably performing better. Have a great trip wish
I was still there.

IF im not surfing im racing

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Sunday, 28 Jan 2018 at 8:03am

You mean one of the inflation vests Evo? Or the R1 floatation vest - the one with foam panels?

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Sunday, 28 Jan 2018 at 12:11pm

No not the one for real waves that I don't want to know about the foam
filled ones $150 also you can get proper leg ropes that are thick and short
not the flimsy crap we get here.

IF im not surfing im racing

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Monday, 29 Jan 2018 at 1:00pm

Cheers. Bought one of the foam-filled ones from Pata.

helmet-not-hose's picture
helmet-not-hose's picture
helmet-not-hose commented Monday, 29 Jan 2018 at 5:07pm

Craig, I'm heading to PNG mid-feb. How often do you do these forecasts?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 29 Jan 2018 at 5:15pm

I'll have another one tomorrow, every Tuesday/Thursday usually.

helmet-not-hose's picture
helmet-not-hose's picture
helmet-not-hose commented Monday, 29 Jan 2018 at 5:24pm

Thx