Slower period ahead with less consistent swells

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Hawaii North Shore forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 17th November)

Best Days: North Shore Friday, Saturday, Wednesday, Friday through Sunday week

This week and next week (Nov 11 - 18)

Hawaii: The surf has eased back from the last couple of days, kicking a little this afternoon as a reinforcing N/NW swell filled in.

Tomorrow should be smaller and easing from 3-4ft+ while our new large N/NW groundswell for Friday is still on track.

A strong and intense but short-lived low fired up to our north, and this has generated a fetch of severe-gale N/NW winds aimed through our north swell window.

The swell is expected to peak through Friday with 6-8ft surf across exposed breaks, with possibly the odd bigger bomb.

A steady drop in size is then due into Saturday, further into Sunday.

Fresh and gusty E/NE trades are expected over the coming period strengthening a little Saturday and Tuesday/Wednesday next week.

The N/NE groundswell due into early next week has been downgraded a little, with the low generating it stalling a little too far east than ideal for us.

We should see exposed breaks to the north-east offering 3-4ft+ waves Monday, fading into Tuesday.

A small to moderate sized and inconsistent N/NW groundswell is due Wednesday, produced by a strong but distant storm firing up along the Aleutian Islands.

A slim fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds should produce inconsistent 4-6ft sets at the swell peaks Wednesday morning, easing off into the afternoon and small Thursday.

A slightly stronger NW groundswell is expected Friday from a storm in a similar region but with a longer life-span, generating severe-gale to near storm-force W/NW winds through our far swell window for nearly two days,

This will produce a prolonged but inconsistent NW groundswell event, arriving overnight Thursday and peaking Friday to 5-6ft+. A slow drop in size from 5-6ft is then expected on Saturday, further Sunday.

Longer term there's a couple of new swells sources, but more on this Tuesday.

North Shore Forecast Graph
North Shore WAMs

Micronesia: The building E/NE trade-swell event through the end of this week and weekend is still on track, with a slight upgrade in the expected size.

Exposed breaks are due to reach 3-4ft by later Friday with a further increase to 4-5ft Saturday afternoon, holding most of Sunday ahead of a late drop in size.

The swell should ease slowly through all of next week, while some small mid-period N'ly swell should be in the mix Wednesday and Thursday.

E/NE trades should ease off from Monday creating cleaner conditions at spots picking up the size.

Palikir Pass Forecast Graph
Palikir Pass WAMs

Papua New Guinea: Small surf is expected over the coming days, but the NE trade-swell for the weekend and more so early next week looks fun.

Swell magnets should see 2ft+ waves Saturday and Sunday, with better sets to 3ft+ Monday afternoon and Tuesday, easing later and further next week.

Longer term smaller surf is due, and variable winds should create decent conditions each morning.

Kavieng Forecast Graph
Kavieng WAMs