Craig

Large swell tomorrow, easing into the new week with deteriorating conditions

Hawaii North Shore forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Sunday 6th March)

Best Days: Sunday morning, Monday morning, keen surfers Thursday morning

This weekend and next week (Mar 6 - 11)

After a low point in swell activity last night, a small kick in size has been seen this morning, but stronger lines of long-range NW groundswell are starting to fill in, with sets due to reach the 8ft range by dark this evening.

A larger and more consistent NW groundswell should replace this swell overnight and peak tomorrow morning, generated by a secondary incarnation of the initial low, projecting a fetch of NW gales towards us the last few days.

This swell should provide more consistent and large 12-15ft sets across the North Shore tomorrow morning, before easing through the afternoon and further down from 8ft+ Monday morning. It should be noted our models are over-forecasting the size a little for tomorrow morning, as it combines a moderate sized and easing mid-period NW groundswell with the new longer-period energy (right).

Tuesday will become even smaller but steady with a new small NW groundswell in the 4-6ft range.

Conditions are looking favourable each morning with light offshores and weak sea breezes tomorrow, more variable winds Monday and then deteriorating winds Tuesday as an early SW'ly strengthens from the N'th due to a weak front pushing down into the islands (below).

Along with this front a mix of mid-period and average W/NW and N/NW swell are due across the coast, the former generated as the front swings in from the west over the coming days, and the later as a fetch of strong N/NW winds then push down towards us on the tail of the front.

Both aren't due to provide too much in the wave of quality or size with 6ft+ sets along with poor but improving fresh and gusty N/NE tending NE winds.

Thursday should be a touch cleaner with fresh to strong E/NE trades and easing 5ft sets.

Longer term it looks as if the weather patterns will make a shift away from our stella season with a large blocking high dominating our main swell windows into the middle to later stages of the month. Check back here Tuesday for another update on this.

North Shore Forecast Graph
North Shore WAMs

Comments

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 6 Mar 2016 at 10:19am

Looks like the non-stop Hawaii season is now starting to wind down.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Sunday, 6 Mar 2016 at 10:53am

Good to see Dorian coaching a bunch of 15 yr olds and under at 12ft Waimea recently.
When does the Honourable Benjamin Matson land in Oahu ?

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Sunday, 6 Mar 2016 at 10:11pm

That's a bummer was going to cancel Bali and go back to Hawaii in April.
For the super late session.

IF im not surfing im racing

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Sunday, 6 Mar 2016 at 10:23pm

P-Pass should be much better than Hawaii on this swell a pure N direction for there . Really long fetch too .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Sunday, 6 Mar 2016 at 10:31pm

Hopefully we can recover from the trauma this el nino Hawaii season caused . Im guessing about 40 yrs to recover & forget about it