Easing XXL swell, new large swell early next week
Hawaii North Shore forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 28th January)
Best Days: Every day over the coming period for experienced surfers (Sunday for less experienced)
This week and next (Jan 28 – Feb 5)
A temporary lull in activity was seen early this morning before a very strong large and dangerous XXL swell started to fill in across the North Shore, with the Waimea Buoy (right) jumping from around 8ft to 19ft within 4 hours at peak periods of 20 seconds.
This has resulted in maxing surf across the North Shore, only surfable at Waimea and other deepwater offshore reefs with generally light winds.
This swell is still holding its size at the 51101 buoy, some 10 hours travel time away from the North Shore, meaning XXL swell will continue into this evening, before starting to tail off steadily through tomorrow, likely from 15-20ft at dawn, down further from the 10ft range Friday morning and smaller into the weekend.
Light winds are expected again tomorrow ahead of weak afternoon sea breezes, with weak E/NE trades Friday, freshening into the weekend.
There'll be little time for North Shore surfers to rest and recuperate before the next swell hits. A new pulse of large NW groundswell due early next week is still on track, with a broad and vigorous storm spawning off the Kuril Islands between Japan and Russia due to project east-southeast towards us through the weekend.
A large long-period NW groundswell is due, arriving overnight Sunday and peaking Monday afternoon to the 10-12ft range, easing slowly through Tuesday from around 10ft, as a secondary reinforcing pulse fills in from a small embedded low on the tail of the progression.
Conditions should be clean with light winds each morning, although less favourable NE winds are due into Tuesday afternoon.
Longer term a late forming but strong low pressure system to our north during the middle of next week is expected to generate a large N/NW groundswell for Friday/Saturday, but we'll have a closer look at this Tuesday.