Craig

Easing XXL swell, new large swell early next week

Hawaii North Shore forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 28th January)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period for experienced surfers (Sunday for less experienced)

This week and next (Jan 28 – Feb 5)

A temporary lull in activity was seen early this morning before a very strong large and dangerous XXL swell started to fill in across the North Shore, with the Waimea Buoy (right) jumping from around 8ft to 19ft within 4 hours at peak periods of 20 seconds.

This has resulted in maxing surf across the North Shore, only surfable at Waimea and other deepwater offshore reefs with generally light winds.

This swell is still holding its size at the 51101 buoy, some 10 hours travel time away from the North Shore, meaning XXL swell will continue into this evening, before starting to tail off steadily through tomorrow, likely from 15-20ft at dawn, down further from the 10ft range Friday morning and smaller into the weekend.

Light winds are expected again tomorrow ahead of weak afternoon sea breezes, with weak E/NE trades Friday, freshening into the weekend.

There'll be little time for North Shore surfers to rest and recuperate before the next swell hits. A new pulse of large NW groundswell due early next week is still on track, with a broad and vigorous storm spawning off the Kuril Islands between Japan and Russia due to project east-southeast towards us through the weekend.

A large long-period NW groundswell is due, arriving overnight Sunday and peaking Monday afternoon to the 10-12ft range, easing slowly through Tuesday from around 10ft, as a secondary reinforcing pulse fills in from a small embedded low on the tail of the progression.

Conditions should be clean with light winds each morning, although less favourable NE winds are due into Tuesday afternoon.

Longer term a late forming but strong low pressure system to our north during the middle of next week is expected to generate a large N/NW groundswell for Friday/Saturday, but we'll have a closer look at this Tuesday.

North Shore Forecast Graph
North Shore WAMs

Comments

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 28 Jan 2016 at 2:52pm

Monstrous!

 

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 28 Jan 2016 at 3:05pm

All of these forecast articles with XXL in 'em.. I can't keep up! 

carpetman's picture
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carpetman commented Thursday, 28 Jan 2016 at 4:11pm

Wowzers! 

 

A photo posted by Othmane Choufani (@othochouf) on

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Friday, 29 Jan 2016 at 11:49am

Still big at Peahi this morning. 

 

#jaws #peahi still roaring today. Some sets 25-30 feet, conditions good.

A photo posted by Phil Arrington (Philpa) (@phil_maui) on

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Friday, 29 Jan 2016 at 1:03pm

Amazing backside technique in huge Peahi by Tom Lowe

 

A video posted by Shannon Marie (@shannonreporting) on

tonybarber's picture
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tonybarber commented Friday, 29 Jan 2016 at 1:11pm

If only for the Eddie. It's time to rock and roll.....

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Friday, 29 Jan 2016 at 5:49pm

Whoops..

 

Yesterday was one for the books! @surfingmagazine @polarpro #Waimeabay #Eddiewouldgo

A video posted by Eric Sterman (@ericsterman) on

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Saturday, 30 Jan 2016 at 5:33pm
caml's picture
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caml commented Saturday, 30 Jan 2016 at 5:43pm

Craig any chance of seeing a post of the buoy reading from that swell just gone ? Either or both buoys ?

caml's picture
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caml commented Saturday, 30 Jan 2016 at 5:45pm

It could be good to compare with the previous jaws swell & we can see where the carnage occured .im guessing higher period right during the arvo of big day just gone?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Saturday, 30 Jan 2016 at 8:30pm

Yep, here they are Cam..

Last Swell:

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Saturday, 30 Jan 2016 at 8:31pm

Looking at that, the latest swell was bigger by a couple of feet and couple of seconds.

This is the Waimea buoy, readings for Maui would be different, and I didn't log that data.

southey's picture
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southey commented Sunday, 31 Jan 2016 at 12:10am

I think it's the swell direction .... The first swell was more Nth ( slightly )

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

caml's picture
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caml commented Sunday, 31 Jan 2016 at 12:43am

Southey yeah rogi , so this one just gone had the more nw angle plus bigger size .hhmmm jaws right becomes more heavy focus on the right then ? Some surfers choose to surf other breaks this time for the chance at less crowded rarely surfed waves .Thanks craig legend

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml commented Sunday, 31 Jan 2016 at 12:48am

Geez no wonder it was hectic jaws thats a rather big period difference . People were being washed off the beach yes almost tsunami stuff

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 31 Jan 2016 at 9:06am

Yeah first swell was more north than the one just gone.