Lots of swell to come, with an XL event for Friday
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COVID-19 is changing the way we think about surfing. Travelling to the surf now means you're putting an unnecessary strain on the resources of small regional communities. So, please stay home. If you live near the beach and want to surf, please maintain a healthy spacing in the lineup, don't hang in the carpark, and keep your surf sessions shorter to allow others the opportunity to get wet. Above all, stay happy, healthy and look out for one another.
Hawaii North Shore forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 12th January)
Best Days: Every day over the coming period for experienced surfers (smallest Thursday morning for less experienced)
This week and weekend (Jan 12 - 17)
After a very large pulse of NW groundswell yesterday, a drop in size was seen this morning from the 10ft range, further into this evening.
A reinforcing N/NW groundswell is expected tomorrow, generated by a low on the backside of the progression generating Sunday's swell, with exposed breaks due to offer sets in the 10ft+ range tomorrow morning, easing through the middle of the day.
Later in the day we should see another slightly smaller pulse of N/NW groundswell, peaking through the evening and easing from the 8ft range Wednesday morning.
Light winds with afternoon sea breezes are due tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday with a slight increase in E/NE trades Friday.
As touched on last update, we've got an XL swell due Friday/Saturday across the region as a vigorous cold front projecting down towards Hawaii from the Kamchatka Peninsula produces a fetch of severe-gale NW winds, for a 'bombing low' to then more over. A 'bombing low' is an intense low pressure system that drops more than 24hpa in central pressure in 24 hours.
An additional fetch of storm to hurricane-force NW winds will be generated by the 'bombing low' over an already active sea state, producing an XL swell for Friday.
Initially the fetch of severe-gale NW winds will generate a large pulse of NW groundswell building later Thursday to at least 8ft by dark, with the XL swell peaking Friday morning in the 15-20ft range across the North Shore, with much larger sets at deep water offshore reefs.
Large waves will continue into Saturday on the backside of the swell as a fetch of severe-gale NW winds remained aimed towards Hawaii on the backside of the low. A slow drop from 15ft+ is expected, further into Sunday.
Generally light variable winds are due over the weekend, with E/NE trades kicking back in from early next week.
Into next week, one final large NW groundswell pulse is likely Monday but we'll have another look at this on Thursday.