Craig

Lots of swell to come, with an XL event for Friday

UNLESS YOU LIVE AT THE BEACH, PLEASE DON'T TRAVEL TO SURF

COVID-19 is changing the way we think about surfing. Travelling to the surf now means you're putting an unnecessary strain on the resources of small regional communities. So, please stay home. If you live near the beach and want to surf, please maintain a healthy spacing in the lineup, don't hang in the carpark, and keep your surf sessions shorter to allow others the opportunity to get wet. Above all, stay happy, healthy and look out for one another.

Hawaii North Shore forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 12th January)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period for experienced surfers (smallest Thursday morning for less experienced)

This week and weekend (Jan 12 - 17)

After a very large pulse of NW groundswell yesterday, a drop in size was seen this morning from the 10ft range, further into this evening.

A reinforcing N/NW groundswell is expected tomorrow, generated by a low on the backside of the progression generating Sunday's swell, with exposed breaks due to offer sets in the 10ft+ range tomorrow morning, easing through the middle of the day.

Later in the day we should see another slightly smaller pulse of N/NW groundswell, peaking through the evening and easing from the 8ft range Wednesday morning.

Light winds with afternoon sea breezes are due tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday with a slight increase in E/NE trades Friday.

As touched on last update, we've got an XL swell due Friday/Saturday across the region as a vigorous cold front projecting down towards Hawaii from the Kamchatka Peninsula produces a fetch of severe-gale NW winds, for a 'bombing low' to then more over. A 'bombing low' is an intense low pressure system that drops more than 24hpa in central pressure in 24 hours.

An additional fetch of storm to hurricane-force NW winds will be generated by the 'bombing low' over an already active sea state, producing an XL swell for Friday.

Initially the fetch of severe-gale NW winds will generate a large pulse of NW groundswell building later Thursday to at least 8ft by dark, with the XL swell peaking Friday morning in the 15-20ft range across the North Shore, with much larger sets at deep water offshore reefs.

Large waves will continue into Saturday on the backside of the swell as a fetch of severe-gale NW winds remained aimed towards Hawaii on the backside of the low. A slow drop from 15ft+ is expected, further into Sunday.

Generally light variable winds are due over the weekend, with E/NE trades kicking back in from early next week.

Into next week, one final large NW groundswell pulse is likely Monday but we'll have another look at this on Thursday.

North Shore Forecast Graph
North Shore WAMs

Comments

tonybarber's picture
tonybarber's picture
tonybarber commented Tuesday, 12 Jan 2016 at 2:18pm

Spot on Craig ....

yocal's picture
yocal's picture
yocal commented Tuesday, 12 Jan 2016 at 4:24pm

Wow... What does that mean in terms of surfable breaks for Friday?. Is it Wiamea only or will Friday be surfable at 2nd/3rd reef pipe, Sunset etc.

I arrive at the North Shore Thursday morning and leave Saturday before lunch, so any advice from someone whose done a few winters would be great.

Go deeper Taylor, go deeper!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 12 Jan 2016 at 4:33pm

Yeah Pipe/Sunset will be maxing and unridable.

yocal's picture
yocal's picture
yocal commented Tuesday, 12 Jan 2016 at 5:28pm

need to jam in a session somewhere Thursday before the bombs hit... oh shit!

Go deeper Taylor, go deeper!

tonybarber's picture
tonybarber's picture
tonybarber commented Wednesday, 13 Jan 2016 at 4:18am

Swell still solid here today's ... 6-8'
Thursday smaller (forecasted) but Friday .... Well unless you are gunned for Waimea .

yocal's picture
yocal's picture
yocal commented Wednesday, 13 Jan 2016 at 10:30am

You holidaying also Tony? How long is your stay?

Go deeper Taylor, go deeper!

tonybarber's picture
tonybarber's picture
tonybarber commented Saturday, 16 Jan 2016 at 9:54am

Yep, yocal, in the land of kakele (surf). As you may know since Pipeline contest, there has been a continuous run of swell. Some nearly good enough to run the Eddie (see other forums chats on this). It seems there is a peak every of swell every four / five days with ample options on this great stretch of the north shore. Plenty to keep you going each day, I suggest.
Enjoy, the good swells are coming with added favourable winds.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Tuesday, 12 Jan 2016 at 5:11pm

Better pack the 10' 6", in the old board bag yocal.........Only kidding.

phantoms, alligators, outer logs, avalanche, himalayas ........will all be working, hike up to pupukea with some binoculars . enjoy the show, enjoy the real northshore.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 13 Jan 2016 at 10:33am

Yeah Friday is looking XXL now, monster swell!

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Wednesday, 13 Jan 2016 at 11:57am

West shore if your not keen on Waimea or outer reefs. Thursday anywhere
on the Nth shore.

IF im not surfing im racing

Faunt Leroy's picture
Faunt Leroy's picture
Faunt Leroy commented Saturday, 16 Jan 2016 at 7:28am

Pretty thick and solid at Waimea today, rainy and overcast. Bit wonky but its giving a few easy (?) chip ins. Still rising at 10.30am.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 16 Jan 2016 at 7:45am

Many out FL?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Saturday, 16 Jan 2016 at 7:59am

Victory at sea conditions going by the explore.org nth shore cams

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 16 Jan 2016 at 8:07am

Yeah been watching them Udo, but they're not in a good position for big swells. Annoying that the Waimea cam looks at the shorey so much.

tonybarber's picture
tonybarber's picture
tonybarber commented Saturday, 16 Jan 2016 at 10:03am

There are several pretty good cams but if you want one that allows you to jump across the various islands then try Starwood Hotels cams (http://www.seehawaiilive.com/kauai/princeville-hotels).
I usually start at Hanalai Bay (princeville) since this faces north then you can work around to the south of the islands. Bonus - no time limits. Downside - its aimed for hotel guests. But heh, it shows the water conditions.

Faunt Leroy's picture
Faunt Leroy's picture
Faunt Leroy commented Saturday, 16 Jan 2016 at 4:14pm

On average there were 10 to 15 out, swell peaked this arvo, the Waimea buoy peaked around 20ft at 17 seconds at 5.34. There was a closeout set around 5.30 which explains that. Was pretty bumpy and some huge drops. Slater got an amazing last wave as did johnx2.
I had a sore throat so I didnt go out...
The way it jacks is nothing like alot of the offshore bombies in oz. I had a few on the first swell this year and bloody hell it jacks, its like surfing a proper ledge wave at 20ft...heaves.
Today was amazing, cant imagine what jaws was like.