Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday July 14th)

Best Days: Today and early tomorrow south magnets

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, easing S swell tomorrow with W/NW winds
• Small, inconsistent E/SE groundswell Sat with strong N/NW winds
• N windswell likely early next week

Recap

The weekend provided fun levels of S’ly swell, strongest through Saturday before easing into Sunday. Today a secondary pulse of S’ly swell has kicked in with clean conditions.

This week and weekend (Jul 15 - 20)

The cold front linked to today’s kick in S’ly swell is already pushing off to the east, and with this we should see the S’ly swell fading through tomorrow, possibly 2ft+ across the south magnets, tiny elsewhere.

Conditions will be nice and clean so hit the regional magnets for a wave before it eases.

Following this the outlook is much slower as a strong, zonal pattern sets up south of the country.

This will bring large pulses of groundswell for our West Coast but nothing for our region.

Looking south-east of New Zealand and a strong, broad low is expected to develop, drifting south temporarily into our swell window Wednesday/Thursday, generating a fetch of strong to gale-force E’ly winds.

Some small, inconsistent E/SE groundswell is due to spread in around New Zealand’s South Island, arriving Saturday, likely providing 2ft+ sets across open beaches.

Winds will unfortunately strengthen from the N/NW on Saturday, creating tricky conditions with smaller surf Sunday under a moderate to fresh NW’ly.

Moving into next week, we may see a more substantial N’ly flow kicking up some decent windswell but the models diverge on this outcome. More on this Wednesday.