Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 14th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Traces of long period S swell Thurs
• Flush in small S swell Fri with SW winds
• Bigger S swell increase into Sat, easing a notch into Sun with SW winds Sat, more W’ly Sun
• S swell easing into Mon, likely back up again Tues
• Possible sizey E-E/NE swell from Tues if ECL forms off NSW coast- check back Fri for the latest

Recap

Small E/NE swells filtering down from the tropics ticked up into the 1-2ft range yesterday and are holding in that range today with offshore winds. Just enough size for a small, fun wave. 

This week and next week (May12— May 23)

Weak pressure gradients are now in the Tasman, as the synoptic pattern takes a pause in between dominant high pressure systems. A coastal trough linked to tropical moisture  now looks to form a small closed low off the NSW coast tomorrow before being captured by a cold front this weekend. We’ll see W’ly winds through the rest of this week before the front and next dominant high bring a new strong S-SE surge over the weekend. Polar lows tied to the front bring some longer period S swell during this period. Next week still looks dynamic with potential for a deep trough or low in the Tasman, although we are going to have to play it day by day due to poor model to model and run to run consistency. Read on details. 

In the short run, small E/NE swell dribbles away tomorrow with surf easing to less than 1-2ft under offshore winds.

Similar winds for Fri but we should see an increase in long period S swell in the a’noon to 2-3ft at S facing beaches generated by an intense polar low well to the SW of Tasmania today. Expect W’ly winds tending pre-frontal NW through the a’noon.

A front pushes past the state Sat bringing fresh SW then S’ly winds and more  S swell. It’ll mostly be short period stuff to 3ft at S facing beaches so keep expectations pegged low. 

Winds should slowly ease Sun as high pressure approaches the state. S swells hold size to 2-3ft, easing during the day.

Into next week and we may have a dynamic outcome for Tasmania. Expect lots of revisions on Fri as we get clarity on the upcoming week. 

The gist of it is a deep trough forming in the Tasman, potentially a surface low or variant of ECL. 

Currently the European model is most bullish on this outcome, with the trough/low deepening o/night Sun into Mon and gales aimed at the NSW Central/South Coast through Mon. Sideband energy from this system would generate some useful 3-4ft E-E/NE swell for NETas likely from Mon next week.

GFS has a much more subdued outlook with the trough deepening but moving away rapidly through the Tasman before setting up shop near the North Island and aiming up a fetch of E’ly winds towards the Eastern seaboard. 

Under that scenario we’d see only small swells for NETas next week. 

We’ll also see some fun longer period S swell in the mix Mon, easing Tues, which we’ll discuss on Fri depending on what fires up in the Tasman.

We’ll come back Wed and see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then!