Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 7th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell wrap Thurs under offshore winds
• Better quality but small E/NE swell Fri with offshore winds
• E/NE swell easing through Sat
• More long period S swell wrap Sun/Mon
• Small E/NE swell fills in Tues/Wed  next week
• Possible sizey S swell next weekend- check back Fri for updates

Recap

Quality E/SE swell in the 2-3ft range was clean under NW winds. Size is still holding some 2-3ft sets today with light/variable winds offering clean conditions.

This week and next week (May7— May 16)

The Eastern seaboard is in between two large highs at the moment with a system near New Zealand still generating surf via a tradewind fetch and a new system moving through the Bight about to replicate it. In between, a trough and cold front are currently approaching Tasmania, expected to bring a vigorous W/SW-SW flow o/night into tomorrow, bringing a spike in short range S swell short term. Once the strong high ridges in and establishes a broad fetch in the Tasman it will become the main swell source over the weekend and into next week.

In the short run we’ll see fresh W/SW winds, tending W/NW as high pressure moves north of the state. S swell from the cold front pushes up into the 2-3ft range through the day with some longer period swell in the background to 1-2ft.

This swell then eases right off through Fri and we’re looking at tiny surf.

Into the weekend and small E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics supplies some inconsistent 2ft sets on Sat along with traces of long period S swell wrap from a polar low tracking under the state. Offshore W-NW winds continue with high pressure to the north supplying W’ly ridging over Tasmania.

That pattern continues into and over Sun with another small blend of S groundswell to 2ft and minor E/NE swell to 1-2ft. Small S groundswell persists into Mon.

Into next week and a big, slow moving high in the Tasman next week will slowly migrate towards New Zealand, holding a broad fetch of SE’ly winds across the Coral Sea, South Pacific slot and into the Northern Tasman. Small amounts of that swell will filter down to NETas next week, likely showing from Tues into Wed in the 2ft range with winds mostly from the NW.

The southern swell window remains suppressed by high pressure but we may see some traces of sideband S swell from poorly positioned fetches (better aimed at South Pacific targets) next week. We’ll see how they look on Fri but as E swells wane later next week small S swells are possible Thurs/Fri.

Much better prospects medium term as blocking high pressure moves away and a more favourably positioned long wave trough node suggests a strong frontal intrusion late next week or into the weekend 17-18/5, potentially spawning a deep, low pressure system. 

If models hold true, we could be looking at some very sizey S swell in that period or just after. 

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then!