Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 2nd May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, clean surf Sat, easing right back Sun
• Quiet for most of next week- possibly some rideable NE windswell Tues/Wed under fresh NW winds
• Better quality E/NE swell Fri with offshore winds

Recap

Quality E/SE swell in the 2-3ft range was clean under NW winds. Size is still holding some 2-3ft sets today with light/variable winds offering clean conditions.

This weekend and next week (May3— May 9)

No great change to the weekend outlook. A dominant (1034hPa) high pressure system is currently moving off the Far South Coast into the Tasman Sea where it very slowly migrates south-eastwards over the weekend. Synoptic W’lies blow across Tasmania with high pressure to the north and cold fronts/zonal lows to the south.

Nothing much over the weekend, with todays swell easing and only tiny traces of S swell wrap offering a 2ft wave at S facing beaches, tiny elsewhere. Offshore W-W/NW winds should tend to variable breezes during the day.

Similar winds for Sun, with W-NW offshores in the morning, although they will tend N’ly at mod paces through the day. Only tiny surf with a minor signal of NE windswell offering a 1-1.5ft wave at best.

Into next week and an approaching low and high pressure to the NE mantains the NW flow across the state with only tiny NE windswell if anything keeping surf tiny.

Strong W’ly-NW’ly winds keep surf tiny/flat in the absence of swell generating fetches through till Fri.

We should see some better quality E/NE swell from a southwards moving low pressure trough which moves from the South Pacific into the Northern Tasman next week. 

Expect surf from the E/NE to 2-3ft on Fri with offshore winds. 

Easing swells after that.

We may also see a better aligned frontal system through the lower Tasman next weekend, with a potential S swell dividend.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!