Winter W'lies and small S swells right through next week

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 26th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • More small S swell pulses this weekend, biggest Sun with W’ly winds
  • Small S swell continues into Mon
  • Small SE swell pulse likely Mon
  • Small S swell keeps coming next week with W’ly winds, more significant Thurs/Fri next week
  • Possible stronger S swell Sun/Mon- check back Mon for latest update


A few small 2 footers from the NE yesterday under W’ly winds but size has evaporated today with basically tiny/flat surf across the region and W to NW winds.

This weekend and next week (May26– June 2) 

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A monster low travelling under the continent is sending large swells to Victoria and is expected to send some minor S swell wrap up into the NE of Tas. The low and a high ridging in across the Australian interior maintain a brisk W’ly across the Island state. 

Expect some inconsistent 2ft sets at S facing beaches through Sat (tiny/flat elsewhere) with a little more size Sun (2-3ft at S facing beaches). Fresh W’lies will tend W/NW at times during the day.

Small S swell pulses continue into next week. We’ll see continuing W’ly winds early next week, tending briefly SW-W/SW as a front tips the state. More small S swell Mon, with a flukey fetch on the edge of the ice shelf today likely to supply some inconsistent 2ft SE swell sets to the region. Models tend to resolve these swells poorly (if at all) so keep expectations pegged appropriately. 

Tues and Wed look to bottom out with tiny/flat surf as S swells ebb.

A stronger front Wed/Thurs may supply S swell a notch bigger for Thurs/Fri (see below) before easing surf into next weekend to kick off Winter, under current modelling.

Following that we may see another front or even low in the Tasman develop late in the weekend bring a bigger payload of S swell Sun and  to kick off the week 5/6.

That's a fair way away but the confidence is reasonable the pattern of small S swells will extend into that time frame as we transition into an El Niño pattern for Winter 2023.

Check back Mon to see how it’s shaping up and in the mean-time, have a great weekend!