Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri May 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small surf Sat with a slight bump in E/NE swell Sun
• Better quality E/NE swell on  Mon and possibly increasing further Tues 
• S swell expected Tues/Wed with more S swell into the first week of June

Recap

Small NE windswell in the 2-3ft range Thurs with light winds has persisted at lower levels today and more light winds as high pressure drifts across the Tasman Sea.

This week and next (May 27 - June3)

No great change to the f/cast. A high is now well on the Eastern side of the Tasman with a trough and front sweeping across Tasmania bringing a variable flow through most of the weekend as Tasmania sits in a weak pressure environment between two low pressure systems.

That should see a light/variable wind flow both days of the weekend. 

Not much action Sat, just a few tiny leftovers from the NE but we should start to see an increase in mid period E/NE swell Sun as the Coral Sea low drags a fetch southwards down the Tasman Sea (see below). Expect some 2ft sets Sun with a variable tending light S to SE flow. 

Ex Coral Sea low aiming up nicely at Tasmania

Into next week and we’ll see stronger, longer period E swell from the Coral Sea/Tasman low start to build Mon with size boosting into the 3ft range under a light E’ly flow.

E’ly swell then peaks Tues with good quality surf to 3-5ft and W’ly winds as a strong front crosses the state.

Into the middle of next week and a cold outbreak linked to a strong front and developing complex low in the Tasman drives SW to SSW gales across and adjacent to the Island extending down to 50S. That will see a steep building trend in S swell set in Wed, likely building into the 6ft+ range during the day with accompanying strong SSW winds. It won’t be pleasant.

That swell peak should ease off quickly through Thurs although better quality S swell in the 3-4ft range with offshore winds is expected.

By the end of next week we’ll see a weak high with a possible NE flow off the NSW South Coast. GFS has a more bullish outlook with 3ft of NE windswell expected by Fri next week. We’ll check on that possibility on Mon.

For now, have a great weekend and Seeya Monday!