Series of S swell pulses ahead, with OK winds

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Bigger pulse Thurs peakingFri with SW winds
  • Leftovers Sat, easing further Sun with light winds
  • Small SSE groundswell Mon PM, Tues
  • E/NE swell on the cards for later next week


Only tiny surf with offshore winds since the last f/cast. A small S swell is building through this a’noon under offshore winds tending SW through the late a’noon. 

This week and next (May 18 - 27)

A series of cold fronts with embedded troughs are now steaming into the Tasman Sea, anchored by a deep polar low which provided large swells for Victoria and New Zealand’s West Coast. Behind the frontal progression another monster high is travelling south of the Bight, ready to set up another ridge along the East Coast. We’re going to see multiple overlapping pulses of S swell over the coming days as the cold fronts slingshot around the parent low on an already active sea state, with the biggest surf coming with some dodgy winds as the high pressure ridge sets up.

In the short run and S swell builds through tomorrow as a front slingshots up past the Island. Expect fresh SW winds with surf from 3ft, up into the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches. 

Plenty of S swell continues through Fri with SW winds remaining fresh and gusty. Early peak in size in the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches will ease off through the day back into the 3ft range by close of play.

The weekend is a bit of a mixed bag with small levels of S swell, biggest Sunday as a final front pushes across the lower Tasman. S’ly winds Sat will scuff up small levels of S swell in the 2ft range.

Winds are better Sun as a high pressure drifts across the state, being light and variable offshore and with a small bump in S swell expected there should be some clean options around at S exposed breaks.

Into next week and we’re looking at a few small days to start next week. Long period SSE swell from an intensification of the parent low near the South Island will see some stray 2ft sets, possibly 2-3ft through Mon and Tues with light winds but it will be inconsistent and flukey. 

The next surf will build Thurs into Fri, from the E/NE as the high moves out into the Tasman and NE to E/NE winds build off the NSW South Coast. There’s a fair bit of model divergence over this swell with GFS having a much more bullish outlook suggesting 3-4ft surf building Thurs into Fri.

EC has a much more conservative outlook suggesting a modest round of NE windswell in the 2ft range to end the next working week.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then.


regulardude's picture
regulardude's picture
regulardude Wednesday, 18 May 2022 at 7:11pm

No south coast forecast?