Fun NE windswell this week before a solid SE/ESE swell from Fri into the weekend

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov 22)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small NE windswell building Tues PM
  • NE windswell peaks at fun levels Wed, eases Thurs
  • Strong SSE swell builds Fri with SSE winds
  • New pulse of SE/ESE swell Sat, slowly eases Sun with improving winds
  • Surf easing back to tiny next week

Recap

Not much on offer over the weekend with only marginal surf both days, consisting of small S’ly swell trains in the 1-2ft range. There’s been no change to that size today with just a light N’ly flow. Better prospects are ahead for NE windswell in the coming days. Details below. 

This week and next week (Nov22-Dec3)

Our current unstable, stormy pattern is being driven by a peanut-shaped high straddling Tasmania, and multiple troughs of low pressure, stretching from the interior of NSW, out to the Mid North Coast and South Pacific near New Zealand’s North Island. Given the dynamic fluidity of this troughy pattern- this past weekend’s trough ended upon the Mid North Coast instead of the South Coast- we’ll still need some wriggle room even in the short term f/cast.

The gist of the pattern looks solid for East Tasmania though. With high pressure roughly halfway between the Island and New Zealand the western flank of the high is set to develop useful fetches of NE wind extending down the South Coast to Bass Strait over the next 24-48hrs.

That sees surf building into the 2-3ft range Tues PM, with mod/fresh N’ly winds developing. 

Wed sees surf holding in the 3ft range as the fetch remains slow moving with continuing N’ly winds, possibly easing a notch during the a’noon as the dominant high slowly drifts away over the South Island.

Clean leftovers are on the menu Thursday with pre-frontal W/NW winds likely cleaning up 2-3ft surf before that swell source eases out of the mix. 

Solid SSE/ESE swell event developing Fri.

The end of the working week sees a major trough line forming in the Tasman as an interior trough exits the Coast. 

This trough is expected to exit the South Coast and form a long SSE angled fetch on Fri as it becomes cradled by a large high moving through the Bight. A pretty classic set-up.

The initial proximate fetch sees surf building steeply Fri up into the 4-6ft range with mod SSE/SE winds accompanying the building swell.

By Sat the fetch will have drawn out into a long SSE/SE angled gale force windfield stretched between the South-East of Australia and the South Island. This fetch generates a more SE/ESE angled swell with plenty of size, up into the 4-5ft range through Sat, with a light SE flow, possibly tending SW inshore early.

Surf holds in the 3-5ft range Sun morning before easing down into the 3ft range during the day, but with light NW winds expected there should be plenty of good to great surf on offer.

Longer term and next week quietens down with a weak troughy pattern expected to deliver only marginal surf from Mon next week. With plenty of action on the short term menu check back Wed to see how it is all shaping up.