Tempestuous week ahead with onshore winds and plenty of swell

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Sep27)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Strong E’ly winds swell Thurs/Fri with onshore winds
  • NE windswell Fri, better quality Sat easing into Sun with better winds
  • Large ESE swell likely Mon/Tues next week


Quite a bit of S swell over the weekend with Saturday seeing 2-3ft of S swell, building into the 3-4ft range for Sun morning before easing back into the 2ft range today.

This week and weekend (Sep27-Oct3)

Tempestuous, windy week ahead for the region with a dominant high moving NE into the Tasman, generating NE windswell before an inland low approaches and brings strong onshore winds and large seas and swell. 

With the large high seeing pressure gradients tighten through Wed, a mix of NE windswell and local ESE windswell develops through Thursday. The local ESE swell is being generated by an infeed into an approaching low pressure system. This local swell comes with plenty of onshore ESE wind through Wed to Fri as the low slowly approaches and then moves offshore from the Gippsland coast. 

That sees large surf into the 4-6ft range during Fri, with NE winds swell from the fetch off the NSW coast adding 3-4ft surf into the mix. Winds Friday are expected to moderate from the SE, although it will depend on the position of the low as it drifts E of Tasmania. 

Current modelling shows the low drifting to the East on Saturday with winds likely to turn offshore for the first time in a week, and plenty of strong ENE to NE swell on offer. Expect 3-4ft surf through Sat with offshore W to SW winds, and a slight easing trend during the day.

Sunday also looks good with surf from the NE in the 3ft range as the NE fetch slowly migrates out of the swell window.  Variable winds are likely Sunday.

Into next week and a strong fetch of SE winds generated by the low as it moves towards New Zealand is aimed directly at the East Coast of Tasmania. 

This fetch moves into position late Sun with a steep increase in SE swell likely Mon, up into the 6ft range. 

Size builds further into Tuesday on current modelling as the fetch intensifies, with size likely into the 6-8ft range.

With the long lead time these calls will likely be subject to serious revision.

Check back Wed for a fresh analysis.