Not a great surf outlook ahead

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 12th June)

Best Days: Sun: small easing NE swell and freshening NW tending W'ly winds. Small and clean though blustery Mon/Tues. Wed: small S'ly swell. 

Recap: Small surf has been present for the last few days, Light morning winds both days swung S;ly Thursday afternoon and E’ly Friday afternoon.  

This weekend (June 13 - 14)

No change to the weekend forecast. A high pressure system east of the state will swing the current E’ly breeze to the north overnight and freshen as a front approaches from the west. This will generate a peaky N/NE windswell by the afternoon though quality won’t be high under the accompanying N’ly breeze. 

Surf conditions will clean up rapidly on Sunday as winds swing fresh N/NE then NW and W/NW as the front crosses the coast. However, the short range N/NE windswell won’t have much power and will ease rapidly through the day. If you’re very lucky you’ll pick up stray 2-3ft sets at the swell magnets at dawn but it’l be down to 1-2ft by lunchtime. 

Next week (June 15 onwards)

The fetch responsible for weekend’s swell will concurrently extend north into the central Tasman Sea (see below), and should supply small NE swells into Monday and Tuesday, just a slow 1-2ft but just big enough to surf. However conditions will be blustery with strong to gale force offshore winds from the NW. 

Unfortunately the rest of the week looks pretty uninspiring thanks to a strong westerly storm track through the Bight that’ll completely inside the swell shadow. The best looking Southern Ocean front will round the Cape on Tuesday so we should see a flush of directional south swell on Wednesday (2-3ft exposed south swell magnets) but anywhere not completely exposed to the south will be tiny. 

Long term has a strong polar low well below the state on Thursday that should generate some long period S’ly swell for next weekend, but this is still quite some time away. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday.