Fading NE swell with a strong SE groundswell Monday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 21st October)

Best Days:

Recap

Tiny waves yesterday, while today's N/NE windswell didn't offer much at open beaches due to its direction but north-east facing spots saw some decent sets. Winds are now better and offshore for more open beaches.

This weekend and next week (Oct 22 - 28)

Although the fetch generating our local N/NE windswell today is expected to move off out of our swell window overnight, further up the NSW coast a fetch of strong N/NE winds should continue to provide fun but inconsistent 2ft+ sets across north-east magnets most of tomorrow.

Clean conditions are due early at north facing beaches, with a S/SW breeze, giving into a S/SE change through the day.

This will be related to a dynamic low forming off our coast during tomorrow and some good SE groundswell due from Sunday through early next week.

As this low forms a fetch of strong SE winds will be generated to our east, just in our swell window tomorrow afternoon, with a stronger fetch of SE gales further south and more in our swell window expected to develop into Sunday morning.

This fetch is likely to reach the severe-gale range and project slightly towards us Sunday afternoon while wrapping around the base of the low.

What we can expect is building E/SE swell Sunday, tending SE into Monday and growing in strength to groundswell, peaking into the middle of the day/early afternoon.

A rapid drop in size is then due Tuesday with tiny leftovers Wednesday.

Open beaches across the northern half of the coast should see 3-4ft sets Sunday, with the groundswell pulsing to a solid 4-6ft Monday, easing from 4ft or so Tuesday morning.

S/SW-S winds are due all Sunday favouring protected locations, with SW tending NE winds on Monday. Tuesday will then see NW winds favouring magnets as the swell eases.

Longer term besides a weak S'ly windswell Friday, another Tasman Low may generate a good E'ly swell for next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!