Plenty of swell with poor winds

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 9th February)

Best Days: Later Wednesday, Sunday northern corners, Monday southern corners

Recap

Saturday morning offered the only real window of decent surf with a clean easing S'ly swell before sea breezes kicked in. Sunday was poor with onshore winds and small to tiny amounts of swell.

Today a new mix of S'ly groundswell and S/SE swell were in the water but with less than favourable winds.

This week onwards (Feb 10 onwards)

Tomorrow and Wednesday morning will be worth giving a miss with a small mix of swells and N'ly tending NE winds on the former and N/NE winds on the latter.

Through Wednesday we should see new levels of E/NE swell showing across open beaches, generated on the northern flank of a high drifting slowly east over the coming days.

This swell should come in at 2ft+ across north-east facing beaches, with the late session worth a look as winds tend NW ahead of a change.

The change will kick up a weak S'ly windswell for Thursday to 2ft+ across south facing beaches while the NE windswell fades away under poor S/SW tending S/SE winds.

What we'll see through Thursday is another ridge sliding in from the west resulting in Thursday's S'ly winds to tend E'ly and being quite elongated, with a building E'ly swell due across the coast through Friday, peaking overnight.

At this stage an onshore and junky 3ft to sometimes 4ft waves should develop later in the day before easing back from the 3ft range Saturday morning. At the same time though we'll see the first pulse of long-range E/NE trade-swell filtering down from a strong, broad and elongated fetch of E/SE trades developing in the Coral Sea and over the top of New Zealand.

The ridge won't be favourably aimed for us through most of its life-span which is due to extend well into next week, but we should still see inconsistent levels of E/NE trade-swell filtering down from Saturday pulsing between 2-3ft at north-east swell magnets.

At the same time though a NE windswell will develop from a broad fetch of NE winds strengthen through the western Tasman Sea, offering 3ft+ waves through Sunday before fading into early next week.

With this local winds will be poor and onshore from the E/NE tending NE Saturday and then N/NE Sunday morning ahead of a possible late offshore change and then back onshore from the SE Monday.

Therefore northern corners will be the pick initially followed by southern corners into Monday. We'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday though.