Craig

Large swell this week, slow until mid-next week

UNLESS YOU LIVE AT THE BEACH, PLEASE DON'T TRAVEL TO SURF

COVID-19 is changing the way we think about surfing. Travelling to the surf now means you're putting an unnecessary strain on the resources of small regional communities. So, please stay home. If you live near the beach and want to surf, please maintain a healthy spacing in the lineup, don't hang in the carpark, and keep your surf sessions shorter to allow others the opportunity to get wet. Above all, stay happy, healthy and look out for one another.

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 23rd October)

Best Days: Experienced surfers tomorrow through Friday, then Tuesday afternoon next week onwards

This week through next week (Oct 24 - Nov 2)

Bali: Small surf is currently breaking across the region along with our funky winds, but our large new S/SW groundswell due tomorrow and Thursday is on track, with the swell coming in large-oversized and on forecast across Western Australia.

This swell was generated by a strong polar front projecting a fetch of SW gales up ideally towards the south west of WA, on top an active sea state and in our southern swell window.

An initial pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales should generate an initial S/SW groundswell for later today, reaching 4ft at south swell magnets with bigger waves tomorrow morning to 5-6ft, but the larger S/SW groundswell should arrive later in the day and kick to 6-8ft across south swell magnets, easing from a similar size on Thursday morning, smaller and back from 5-6ft Friday morning, smaller into the weekend.

No new swell is expected until Tuesday and more so Wednesday/Thursday next week and this only looks to be moderate sized but persistent S/SW groundswell from broad but not overly strong polar frontal activity around Heard Island and south-west of WA.

At this stage we're looking at a slow build Tuesday towards 4-5ft at exposed breaks, with scope Wednesday afternoon for sets more to 6ft, easing slowly into the end of the week.

Wind wise our funky S/SW winds will persist over the coming days (variable each morning) before tending more S/SE through the afternoons from Friday and holding through most of next week.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: The groundswell impacting Bali on Wednesday/Thursday should spread radially up into us tomorrow evening, kicking late out of the south to 4-6ft, with a peak on Thursday more in that upper 6ft range before easing slowly through Friday and further over the weekend.

The S/SW groundswell energy from Tuesday next week looks a little smaller across our region, but a burst of SW gales south-east of Madagascar generating Wednesday's best pulse will be aimed nicely through our swell window, with good 6ft sets likely at swell magnets into the afternoon, easing back from 4-5ft Thursday.

Winds over the coming period look good and out of the E/SE-SE each morning, S'ly into the afternoons, following this pattern most of next week.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph