Craig

Slowing down into spring

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 3rd October)

Best Days: Swell magnets over the coming period

This week and next (Oct 4 - 13)

Bali: The surf is miminal today with inconsistent background S/SW groundswell breaking across swell magnets, small to tiny elsewhere.

We'll see this swell easing back into tomorrow leaving very infrequent 3ft to occasionally 4ft sets at magnets.

Another background S/SW groundswell should arrive through Thursday, produced by a great but unfavourably aligned and broad fetch of W/NW gales through our swell window, south-west of WA.

This should bump exposed breaks back up to the inconsistent 3-5ft through the day, holding into Friday morning.

A slightly stronger increase in size is due through the afternoon an inconsistent swell from a distant but long-lived polar low fills in. A couple of sets to the 6ft range should be seen at magnets into the afternoon, easing off slowly Saturday from 4-6ft.

Weak trades are expected over the coming period, variable for good periods of time during the mornings.

Into early next week a couple of fun S/SW swells are due, the biggest for Tuesday. Back to back polar fronts firing up from the Heard Island region towards WA over the coming days, with an initial increase in S/SW swell Monday to the 4-6ft range, followed by a secondary increase in S/SW swell Tuesday more to a consistent 6ft.

The swell should ease slowly from Wednesday, further Thursday with a possible reinforcing swell Friday, but more on this next update.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: Small waves the past few days, but we should see some small background S/SW groundswell from the polar low building through tomorrow, more so into Thursday.

Variable winds will create great conditions with sets due to build to 3-5ft at magnets by dark tomorrow, increasing further towards a more consistent 5ft later Thursday, easing from 4-5ft Friday, smaller into the weekend.

The fronts firing up towards WA over the coming few days will only form late in our swell window, and with this the size will be a bit smaller than seen across Bali.

The first front out of the two will form a touch further west and more in our swell window compared to the second, so our biggest increase in size will be seen with the first pulse later Sunday and Monday morning.

Magnets should build towards 5ft later Sunday, easing slowly Monday and down further through Tuesday and Wednesday. Longer term the outlook remains quiet.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph

Comments

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 5 Oct 2017 at 7:21am

Hey Craig
Going on previous years, what are the chances of getting another big swell now that we're in October? Or is it just wishful thinking

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 5 Oct 2017 at 8:13am

Next week/weekend is looking really fun, a couple of large-ish days, but not like peak season. After that it's down down down.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Thursday, 5 Oct 2017 at 7:49am

Shoulder season savings, eh GF? Where you off too?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 5 Oct 2017 at 10:24am

Thanks Craig, bugger..

Nothing is locked in Stu, just got a bit of cash put away for a last minute mission. I was hoping to get one before it's curtains for the year. Not looking promising

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Thursday, 5 Oct 2017 at 12:50pm

There's always late seasons swells Goofy.

I don't really think of October as late.

And great tides for some places.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 5 Oct 2017 at 1:17pm

Yeah totally, still plenty of potential for the Indian Ocean to deliver.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 5 Oct 2017 at 6:04pm

Cheers fellas, fingers crossed

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Thursday, 5 Oct 2017 at 7:26pm

LP is good now till end Nov...bit windy at times..but usually Brazzo free.