Fun surf ahead of a large powerful swell late next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Bali and Mentawais forecast​​​​​​ by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 13th April)

Best Days: Every day across Indonesi and Bali, biggest Tuesday through next weekend

This week and next (Apr 14 - 21)

Bali: A very inconsistent and moderate sized groundswell has been breaking across the region the last couple of days, and we'll see a similar small swell arriving through the afternoon today, peaking tomorrow morning.

Our models are combining the easing and new swell incorrectly and over forecasting the size.

Exposed breaks like Nusa Dua should see infrequent 4-5ft+ sets, easing off into the afternoon.

Through the weekend some less than favourably aligned but fun S/SW swell will push into the Indonesian coast, the first for Saturday afternoon with a slightly better increase for late Sunday and Monday morning.

These swells has been generated by strong polar frontal activity south-west of WA, with the best swell currently building across the WA coastline.

We should see exposed breaks hanging around 4-5ft Saturday, a touch smaller early Sunday before kicking later in the day to 6ft on the sets, easing from a similar size Monday morning.

Variable winds will create good conditions at all locations through the morning before weak sea breezes develop.

Another S/SW groundswell should fill in Tuesday, with this swell being longer-period and also less consistent.

A vigorous polar low fired up south-east of Heard Island yesterday, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds in our far southern swell window. Satellite observations confirm the model forecasted winds around the low, and we should see strong but inconsistent 6ft sets developing across exposed breaks Tuesday, easing back through Wednesday.

Of greater importance is a large long-period S/SW groundswell due late week.

We'll see a vigorous polar frontal progression forming in a similar region to the intense polar low mentioned above, but with a much greater scope. A pre-frontal severe-gale W/NW fetch will set up an active sea state for a stronger storm-force SW fetch to move in on top of, producing a large and powerful groundswell.

Long-period fore-runners are due to arrive on dark Wednesday but with no size, with the swell filling in rapidly Thursday, building to 8ft range across most exposed breaks, with the odd sneaker possibly in the mix.

A drop in size is due Friday from 6-8ft but into Saturday we'll see a good reinforcing S/SW swell filling in, produced by another strong polar frontal system firing up south-west of WA.

This secondary system will be positioned a little further north and as a result come in with a little more consistency. The swell should fill in Saturday, pulsing back to 6-8ft across exposed breaks with a steady easing trend from Sunday through the following days.

Longer term we could see a moderate to large swell for the end of April but more on this Tuesday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Ments: Today a good but inconsistent S/SW groundswell should be building across the islands. Exposed breaks should see 4-6ft sets, easing from 4-5ft+ tomorrow morning a touch smaller Saturday.

The moderate S/SW swells due across Bali the coming Easter period will be smaller and out of the S'th across the Ments, only coming in around the 4ft or so Sunday through Monday.

The better long-period S/SW groundswell from the intense polar low should peak on Tuesday across the Mentawais, coming in at 4-6ft across the more southern exposed breaks of the islands.

A slight drop in size is due Wednesday, but the large S'ly groundswell for late week looks to come in Thursday, building to an easy 6ft by dark, peaking Friday morning to 6ft to occasionally 8ft, easing into the afternoon and Saturday. The secondary swell is due Sunday, keeping good 6ft surf hitting the region before easing Monday.

Throughout the whole forecast period conditions are looking good with variable winds, favouring all breaks.

16 day Mentawai forecast graph
16 day Nias forecast graph
16 day South Sumatra forecast graph

Comments

Booka78's picture
Booka78's picture
Booka78 Thursday, 13 Apr 2017 at 1:32pm

Thanks Craig dusting off the step up for Thursday!

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Saturday, 15 Apr 2017 at 7:30pm

I surfed out Ulus on Thursday 13th and I would call it easy solid 6ft with 8ft bombs
sets. More so in the morning, pretty damn good I thought.
Friday 3-5ft with 6ft bomb sets was ok.
On a side note 9 out of 10 surfers here are Brazilians never seen so many. Apparently
there are super deal airfares going on $500 return. Its busy.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Monday, 17 Apr 2017 at 5:20pm

If there is one thing any surf spot needs it's more Brazilians.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 18 Apr 2017 at 10:00am

Changed your mind about never going back eh evo?
;-)