Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 29th October)

Best Days: Saturday afternoon onwards

This week and weekend (Oct 30 – Nov 6)

The swell is slowly dropping away and we'll see it really bottom out into tomorrow morning, with only swell magnets picking up anything surfable.

There's been no change to the very inconsistent SW groundswell for Saturday, with exposed breaks due to build to 4-5ft through the afternoon, backing off to 3-5ft through Sunday.

A better and larger S/SW groundswell is due next Tuesday though, with it already being generated by a vigorous and broad polar frontal progression that developed west of Heard Island a couple of days ago.

The front linked to this has since weakened, with it leaving a moderate to large S/SW groundswell to travel towards us, kicking strongly Tuesday afternoon and reaching 6ft to occasionally 8ft across exposed breaks.

Wednesday will then see the swell drop from the 6ft+ range, further down through Thursday and Friday morning.

Much weaker trades are due next week providing more time through the mornings for favourable conditions at those more exposed breaks.

Next weekend onwards (Nov 7 onwards)

A larger and more powerful S/SW groundswell is due into next Saturday across the islands with a vigorous polar low developing west of Heard Island tomorrow, due to aim a fetch of severe-gale to sub-storm-force W/SW winds through our medium-range swell window, followed by a secondary weaker fetch of W/SW winds in our southern swell window early next week.

This should produce a large long-period S/SW groundswell that should build later Friday and peak Saturday morning to 6-8ft across exposed breaks, with the easing trend slowed through Sunday and early next week.

Moderate to fresh E/SE trades are likely to kick back in later next week and weekend, but keep an eye on the forecast chart for this.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph