Craig

Fun swells and weakening trades

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 19th May)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period

This week and weekend (May 20 - 24)

A good pulse of S/SW groundswell yesterday has held into today with good waves across most breaks this morning under weaker trades which were variable early.

Into tomorrow the swell should ease a touch, before backing off to a smaller 3-5ft across exposed breaks into Thursday.

Winds should remain favourable, with variable breezes each morning and moderate E/SE trades into the afternoons.

Into Friday a good but inconsistent and very south S/SW groundswell is due across the region, generated by a strong polar frontal system firing up to the south-southwest of WA.

This swell should come in at an inconsistent but strong 5-6ft across exposed breaks, with the chance of the odd bigger one, before easing from 4-5ft+ Saturday morning and further into Sunday.

Winds will continue to weaken with variable breezes each morning ahead of weak afternoon SE sea breezes.

Next week onwards (May 25 onwards)

Next week will start slow with only a very inconsistent long-range SW groundswell due to fill in Monday, providing very infrequent 3-4ft+ waves across exposed breaks before easing a touch into Tuesday.

A more consistent and slightly bigger S/SW groundswell is then due to build Wednesday and peak Thursday morning, more in the 5-6ft range across exposed breaks.

Of more significance is some possible larger swell due late in the month, generated by a vigorous polar low firing up just west of Heard Island on the weekend. The models are still divergent on this system though, so check back here Thursday for an update on this.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

mattylodge's picture
mattylodge's picture
mattylodge commented Tuesday, 19 May 2015 at 3:50pm

How onshore are we talking? Got a 4 day session at Keramas starting Friday...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 19 May 2015 at 4:26pm

Looking good wind wise for that period Matty (compared to when the trades are up and blowing).

Light variable winds each morning and clean, glassy conditions, with Friday and Monday the most likely to see the stronger trades from mid-late morning. Weaker sea breezes Saturday and Sunday with likely late glass offs.

You'd be best making the most of Friday and Saturday's swell, as it will become pretty small into Sunday, with a very inconsistent swell for Monday.

Here's our Keramas Forecast: https://www.swellnet.com/reports/indonesia/bali/keramas/forecast

mattylodge's picture
mattylodge's picture
mattylodge commented Tuesday, 19 May 2015 at 6:50pm

Just what I wanted to hear, cheers Craig

prandles's picture
prandles's picture
prandles commented Tuesday, 19 May 2015 at 7:38pm

How is June lining up as I have 3 weeks over there

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 19 May 2015 at 8:11pm

A little too early in the piece at this stage, will make mention in the coming updates.