Fun week, swell fading away through next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Dec 23rd Oct)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period until mid next week

This week and weekend (Nov 23 - 28)

We've got some fun swells for exposed breaks over the coming week ahead of a slow period heading into next week.

A series of broad but not overly strong polar fronts have been firing up from the Heard Island region towards West Oz the last few days and week. This has generated a couple of small to moderate and inconsistent S/SW groundswell pulses.

An initial increase today should be followed up by a better pulse tomorrow and strongest increase Friday.

Size wise we should see exposed spots around Bali coming in at 4-5ft tomorrow and then 4-6ft on Friday. Winds are expected to be generally light and variable over the coming week with glassy conditions each morning with a slight bit of strength from the W from the weekend into early next week.

Friday's swell should drop away into Saturday and further Sunday before dropping back to the small 3ft to occasionally 4ft range Monday and Tuesday with no significant frontal systems firing up within our swell window.

Next week onwards (Dec 29 onwards)

Next week will be really slow and become near flat from Wednesday onwards with a large blocking pattern setting up through the Indian Ocean as well as the possible formation of a tropical cyclone.

With this is mind make the most of the coming week of waves!

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Saturday, 3 Jan 2015 at 4:22pm

From the sight of downed Air Asia flight.

Rescue boat captain Adil Triyanto told Fairfax Media that conditions at sea — above and beneath the waves — were wreaking havoc on their ability to search. Waves were five to six metres, he said.

Interesting

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Saturday, 3 Jan 2015 at 6:37pm

Yeah , I'm sure I saw aerial footage of waves ( proper ) whilst they were searching in the Javan Sea . Coincided with a big off season deluge in Malaysian Borneo .... New frontier ?!

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Sunday, 4 Jan 2015 at 8:25am

Yep me too. Was stacked lines that I saw. But could not tell the distance. Dark be uncrowded eh. I have leased a place in Bali so if you keen for a mission lets go. Not flying airasia though or MLA

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Sunday, 4 Jan 2015 at 12:37pm

Wicked ....
I'm not moving from here ATM though , beaches were extremely good on Friday . And with this weeks forecast ..... Quality and ride lengths can only get longer . Couldn't believe my eyes when I struggled to get a carpark in cow country . Might have to start talking up the wrong days to thin the crowds .... 15 guys on one bank ..... Crazy town .
Only saviour was the almost wind swell like 11.5 sec interval , was mechanical ;-))

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Sunday, 4 Jan 2015 at 3:45pm

Hey Southey you said " MJO stall crawl could see the adjacent Sth High/Ridge give us some good weather down here"

Please explain Southey? Meaning a synoptic chart like today's? (2-3 days prior)

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Sunday, 4 Jan 2015 at 5:08pm

MVG
when the monsoon extends well into the interior , the resulting lower ( higher latitude ) Highs' ridges make for no frontal activity . Then we just see trough changes or stalls .
So in effect you will be lucky to get more than 12 hrs of sand bank destroying winds in as long as a week . This length of period really lets the banks consolidate . And if your in the right place at the right time , you'll discover that sandbanks down here can start to resemble point breaks of considerable length . And when the planets truly do align and the swell increases late in this period all while the offshores are maintained some banks will hold some serious size and the wave quality is as good as anywhere .
So generally speaking you can see strong fronts push up under SA , produce a swell then slide or retract down to the SE and sth of Tassie , whilst we are left with Indoesque light wind regimes and building swell .

mitchvg's picture
mitchvg's picture
mitchvg Sunday, 4 Jan 2015 at 11:00pm

OK I had the rough grasp of it, cheers. Always have to double check with you but since I've seen you mention wheat farmers :P Does much make it to/past Morris's side of Vicco? Or are there just too many obstacles?

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Monday, 5 Jan 2015 at 1:58am

Not sure where your heading with that , but Morris and Shaun are ' twins ' and live together . I would think the smallest west facing coasts like the prom would be as small as 2-3ft at the height of the next swell pulse . Not sure that answers all your questions , maybe it's all that milk that's gone to my head ! I think my lactose Intolerance will flair up come Thursday .

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Monday, 5 Jan 2015 at 7:38am

Posting in the early hours again southy, after work is it? What do you do for work southy, selling ekkys in King st. night clubs?

Be careful of accepting offers from strangers on the internet southy, it might sound wicked but think about it mate this bloke money bags mick offers you, a stranger to come on over for a surf trip with him, one has to ask, does he a have any mates of his own? Why is he trawling the internet inviting strangers to come surfing in remote locations with him, sure your not being groomed by Mick Taylor?

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Monday, 5 Jan 2015 at 10:49am

I'm a big boy Shaun . But thanks for the concern .
I often can only get work done at home at strange hours . Normal hours my kids are just too distracting . That and WA is three hours behind . Besides from what I can gather everyone wants to hang out with Morris .. Jealous mate ?!? ;-)
Get waves last Friday ? I was stuck on the Balkany again !