Craig

Fun week, very large and powerful Sunday

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tue 19th Aug)

Best Days: Most days over the coming period, large and dangerous Sunday and Monday

This week (Aug 20 -22)

After a good pulse of long-range SW groundswell Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, a drop in size was seen into the weekend ahead of a fresh pulse later Sunday and yesterday.

The swell should of dropped a touch into this morning but a new SW groundswell should arrive later today and persist through tomorrow with inconsistent 4-6ft sets due at exposed spots.

A slow drop in size is due Thursday, with Friday afternoon due to see a new pulse of long-range S/SW groundswell to a slightly larger size than Wednesday's swell.

Winds will strengthen from the E/SE over the coming days and likely peak in strength on Sunday as a large and powerful SW groundswell fills in, but more on this below.

This weekend onwards (Aug 23 onwards)

As touched on last update we're looking at some large swell from this weekend and into the following week as a strengthening node of the Long Wave Trough stalls south-west of WA tomorrow, and remains in the area for almost a week.

This is currently steering and strengthening a vigorous polar front pushing up from the south-east of South Africa, north of Heard Island and directly towards us, protruding very north into the Indian Ocean.

A broad fetch of severe-gale SW winds will be aimed towards us, and the extra projection up towards the Equator will help generate a large, powerful and consistent SW groundswell. The size is looking similar to the swell we saw the Ripcurl Padang Cup run in just over a week ago.

The forerunners of this swell are due to arrive very late Saturday with no increase in size likely until after dark, with a peak due during the day Sunday to 10-12ft+ at exposed breaks with the odd 15ft bomb likely at times.

The swell should drop steadily through Monday and Tuesday, likely bottoming out Wednesday morning as fresh to strong E/SE trades start to relax.

Another large pulse of slightly more southerly SW groundswell is due into Wednesday afternoon ahead of a peak Thursday morning though, as another vigorous polar front falls under the steering and amplifying effects of the Long Wave Trough.

This secondary front will be a touch stronger, but shorter-lived resulting in a slightly smaller and less powerful, as well as less consistent swell than Sunday's.

Still exposed spots should come in at the large 10ft to occasionally 12ft range at exposed spots possibly late Wednesday and more so Thursday morning.

From here on a steady drop in size is due into the start of September but we'll look over this again on Thursday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Tuesday, 19 Aug 2014 at 1:11pm

That certainly is some very impressive back to back swells forecast inbound for Indo over the coming weeks.

4 weeks til my trip up there and I'm not really hoping for these solid swells as knee is only just recovering from arthroscopy!!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 19 Aug 2014 at 1:16pm

What's the recovery time on that, and is it just trauma from the clean and scrape?

Ie is it just soreness that you can push through and still surf with or do you have to rest it from any major activity for a few weeks?

I'm guessing its less recovery time from a tear to the MCL (6 weeks or so)?

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Tuesday, 19 Aug 2014 at 6:35pm

Craig I had some of my meniscus removed after tearing it so the recovery time involves restrengthening the muscles around the knee in order to compensate for the loss of meniscus. Op was 3.5 weeks ago and I'm seeing physio again tomoz so will see what he says about when I can get back on a board. But he's confident I'll make my trip in 4 weeks time. Just a question how much surfing I get in between now and then. But I'm not going to rush it and risk re-injuring it.

bigkiwisi's picture
bigkiwisi's picture
bigkiwisi commented Tuesday, 19 Aug 2014 at 1:24pm

Craig, I'm heading up to Simeulue Island next week and arrive Wednesday around midday and are there for 10 days, will the swell up that high still be as large and grunty?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 19 Aug 2014 at 1:28pm

Just doing a Ments regional forecast now, and it won't be as big as Bali but still large and powerful.

Both storms are more aimed towards Eastern Indonesia, but the second large swell due next Thursday up that way will be more S/SW in direction and still likely come in at 8ft to occasionally 10ft at exposed breaks. It'll only be in this large range for a day so with more more manageable waves either side on Wednesday and Friday.

bigkiwisi's picture
bigkiwisi's picture
bigkiwisi commented Tuesday, 19 Aug 2014 at 2:17pm

Happy Days !!!....... I think....??

reecen's picture
reecen's picture
reecen commented Tuesday, 19 Aug 2014 at 4:09pm

Are the Trades looking quite strong for Sunday / Monday? Whenever I look at the charts for indo the winds always look the same to me?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 19 Aug 2014 at 4:14pm

Yeah they are Reecen, but certain regions in Bali may see variable and even local land breezes early morning even under these fresh to strong E/SE trades.

reecen's picture
reecen's picture
reecen commented Tuesday, 19 Aug 2014 at 4:35pm

Cheers Craig,
Thanks for the answers, much appreciated.