Craig

Bali: Easing into the weekend, oversized S/SW swell Monday

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Thu 7th Aug)

Best Days: Friday, Saturday morning, late Sunday, Monday for experienced surfers, Tuesday onwards

This week and next week (Aug 8 - 15)

Tuesday's strong but inconsistent SW groundswell eased back slowly through yesterday, but a reinforcing pulse today has kept solid sets hitting most spots under moderate to fresh E/SE trades.

The swell will slowly drop through tomorrow and further Saturday, bottoming out Sunday morning to 4-5ft across exposed spots. Moderate to fresh E/SE trades are expected to continue over the coming days before strengthening through Sunday afternoon and Monday, limiting the best waves to protected breaks.

Now, Monday's large and powerful S/SW groundswell is tracking along really nicely with satellite observations (right) confirming a broad fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds in the Heard Island region. This was at the strongest stage of the polar frontal progression generating the swell, and we should continue to see a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds produced through our swell window today and tomorrow before the system starts moving out of our swell window, under Australia Friday afternoon.

The fore-runners of this groundswell should arrive late in the day Sunday but Monday morning will reveal the peak of the swell with very large 10-12ft sets expected at exposed locations around Bali, with the odd bigger bomb possible through the morning.

Sumbawa will see a touch less size while East Java should come in similar to Bali.

Protected locations will be the go under fresh to strong E/SE trades but these should ease off through the week as the swell also does from later Monday afternoon. Tuesday should still be in the 8-10ft range at exposed spots before dropping to more manageable levels Wednesday and bottoming out overnight.

The next increase in size is due through Thursday afternoon and Friday morning will be a much more playful swell, but still come in solid across exposed breaks.

A weaker and shorter-lived polar frontal progression from the same area around Heard Island will generate this swell, but we should only see inconsistent 6ft+ sets at exposrd spots as it peaks Friday morning before easing off slowly into the afternoon and weekend.

Variable tending moderate to fresh E/SE trades should open up plenty of options for surfers to go exploring.

Longer term there's nothing too major on the cards (which is change!) but we should still continue to see inconsistent pulses of medium to possibly large SW groundswell through the following week. More on this Tuesday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

sarge4's picture
sarge4's picture
sarge4 commented Wednesday, 13 Aug 2014 at 12:47pm

Craig/Ben

What significant factors contributed to this swell event being so significant. Was lucky enough to be around Bali and Java for late June and July so saw plenty of large swells but his last one appears just plain mean. According to the footage, photos and local reports anyways..... Any insights would be appreciated.

Thanks

Oi

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 13 Aug 2014 at 12:51pm

The storm that generated this swell was one of the strongest, longest lasting and slower moving systems we've seen.

Usually a series of strong fronts will fire up South East of South Africa and die down once passing east of the Heard Island region, or only fire up east of Heard Island before pushing across WA.

This progression however started it's life south-east of South Africa, moved slowly east while strengthening and for a good while generating winds between 40-50kts+. It did start to weaken while tracking towards WA, but only slightly, so traversed the entire Indian Ocean with strength.

One monster of a swell!

sarge4's picture
sarge4's picture
sarge4 commented Wednesday, 13 Aug 2014 at 4:00pm

Thanks Craig!!
So if I've understood correctly, the length of time the storm stayed active was the/a significantly contributing factory in the swell strength. Am I right to assume this would be hard to model/forecast?
Thanks again

Oi

sarge4's picture
sarge4's picture
sarge4 commented Wednesday, 13 Aug 2014 at 4:00pm

Thanks Craig!!
So if I've understood correctly, the length of time the storm stayed active was the/a significantly contributing factory in the swell strength. Am I right to assume this would be hard to model/forecast?
Thanks again

Oi

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 13 Aug 2014 at 10:05pm

Yeah you're right, and no not hard to model/forecast as the models handle these systems pretty well, I guess it's up to us to point out the strengths of one significant swell compared to say others.

samgreen's picture
samgreen's picture
samgreen commented Wednesday, 13 Aug 2014 at 6:17pm

Hey Craig,

Any info on what the swell data was for this swell at its peak? I heard several metres at 19 seconds?! My mates were on Lembongan and got a few ridiculous shots..

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 13 Aug 2014 at 10:05pm

Sam, will have a look tomorrow, but if I remember correctly we were looking at just over 3m of swell in that 17-19 second range.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 14 Aug 2014 at 8:57am

Figures were 3.3m @17.9s at the peak of the swell and it held most of this size all day Monday while the period throttled back a touch.

samgreen's picture
samgreen's picture
samgreen commented Thursday, 14 Aug 2014 at 9:05am

Sweet thanks mate!

reecen's picture
reecen's picture
reecen commented Wednesday, 13 Aug 2014 at 7:49pm

I thought it was going to be directed more at W.A. and not hit Indo as hard, was wrong about that.
Was a pity the wind was so strong on Monday.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Thursday, 14 Aug 2014 at 12:15am

Get a wave in Ben?

sarge4's picture
sarge4's picture
sarge4 commented Thursday, 14 Aug 2014 at 8:17am

Thanks Craig, really appreciate being able to learn a little from you guys. I reckon stick to not giving up all the detail. Keep us workin for it!

Oi

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman commented Thursday, 14 Aug 2014 at 9:06am

Some crazy shots coming out... found this one yesterday.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 14 Aug 2014 at 9:09am

Crazy, washthroughs at Lacerations.