Craig

Active period ahead for the next couple of weeks

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tue 3rd Jun)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period

This week and weekend (Jun 3 - 8)

The forecast for the coming week is still holding with medium sized pulses of SW groundswell expected to pad out the coming days under fresh to sometimes strong E/SE trades.

Size wise exposed spots should hover either side of 5ft for the most part with larger 6ft sets seen mainly through tomorrow and later Friday.

Into the weekend, a long-range and very inconsistent but large SW groundswell is due to fill in and peak through Saturday, generated in our far swell window to the south-east of South Africa and Madagascar.

Due to the extremely large distance between the source of the swell and our coasts the breaks between sets are expected to be 10-15 minutes or so with exposed spots coming in at 6ft with rare 8ft bombs and smaller surf at protected spots.

The swell should drop a touch into Sunday, but not below 6ft at exposed spots as trailing frontal activity in the wake of the strong progression responsible for Saturday's swell keeps plenty of swell hitting the Indonesian Archipelago.

Next Monday onwards (June 9 onwards)

Another large but a lot more consistent SW groundswell is due to arrive through Monday afternoon and peak Tuesday morning generated by a tight and intense low pushing up through the Central Indian Ocean, aiming a fetch of gale to severe-gale SW winds towards us. This system will push fairly north into the Indian Ocean helping to reduce the amount of swell decay and also increase the consistency.

Size wise we should see exposed spots peaking in the 6ft to occasionally 8ft range again Tuesday morning before easing into Wednesday and Thursday morning.

Winds should ease off from this week but remain moderate from the E/SE with periods of variable winds likely each morning from Sunday onwards.

Longer term there's plenty of swell to come into the next weekend and following week but we'll review this Friday.

Bali Forecast
East Java Forecast
Sumbawa Forecast

Comments

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Tuesday, 3 Jun 2014 at 9:33pm

Yawn just another two weeks of 6 foot plus surf haha

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

rusty-moran's picture
rusty-moran's picture
rusty-moran commented Wednesday, 4 Jun 2014 at 9:19am

Ben and Craig, I'm very happy to report that your model forecast for Sumbawa over the last two weeks have been bang on the money. I'd say within +/- 1ft and +/- 3 hrs.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Wednesday, 4 Jun 2014 at 11:47am

How have the trades been out there Rusty??

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

rusty-moran's picture
rusty-moran's picture
rusty-moran commented Wednesday, 4 Jun 2014 at 9:48pm

Very light trades after the morning glass at Lakey. Bima airport closed after the volcanic eruption. That was rad.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 4 Jun 2014 at 9:16am

Fantastic! That's great feedback.. thanks Rusty.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 4 Jun 2014 at 10:13am

Great to hear Rusty, had various reports across the region confirming the forecasts.

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Wednesday, 4 Jun 2014 at 10:23am

Hey guys is that big blocking high in the Indian ocean next week going
to stop the swell heading into Bali?Im plan to go on Monday 9th june. THX

IF im not surfing im racing

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 4 Jun 2014 at 10:34am

Evo, have a read of the last few paragraphs.

Not at all as the high will be positioned more in the Western Indian Ocean but allow fronts to push up through Bali's southern swell window in the South Eastern Indian Ocean.

The highs that block swell are usually positioned further south, restricting frontal systems to the poles and stretch across the Western Australia.

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Wednesday, 4 Jun 2014 at 3:04pm

Sensational thankyou im off. C YA

IF im not surfing im racing

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Wednesday, 4 Jun 2014 at 3:43pm

Evo, I'm not an expert but I heard those strong trades from those highs cause a wobble in the swell. Hopefully someone on the forums like Southey knows how it works.

also I'm pretty sure indo is closed now.....there's nothing to see there. Nah just kidding good luck - t was pretty uncrowded in May so be interesting if the crowds have arrived.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Thursday, 5 Jun 2014 at 9:33am

I'm pretty happy with my " early season " call in another thread .....
Whats the 'zilla factor Rusty .... have you timed your trip well with the impending world cup ???? Maybe Ben and Craig could tap into the Indo Imigration department computers and give running totals on impending Sth Amer. visa's ..... I believe ASIO have a handle on this ... hehehe
mick , i've aired my point of view on such phenom's quite a few times , either people don't understand , strongly disagree or don't care . ;-))
as for the " highs " situation . With one well north in the West Indian and one Blocking high over our central continent , it produces an area of frontal concentration as craig says exactly in a good lombok , bali east of central java window . As long as the two highs don't ridge out between each other too early , which will most likely eventually happen then this provides the only " relief " point for all that built up southern low pressure to vent and concentrate . The uppers also will have an impact , but lets not look too far into it .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

rusty-moran's picture
rusty-moran's picture
rusty-moran commented Thursday, 5 Jun 2014 at 3:11pm

G'day Southy, yes indeed the brazzoes were out at Lakey. The guys I was chatting to were not interested in going home for the World Cup. Plenty of waves brother. Get into it.